Winter Weather Update: Christmas rain/snow showers develop after 3PM in the western Metro area, a few slushy inches possible in the Foothills

After days and days of warm and dry weather, things in the Front Range are taking an interesting turn right in time for Christmas. A trough of low pressure is moving into the Four Corners area right now with a mix of clouds and sunshine out ahead of it. Later in the day, a cold front will move through from the northeast leading to scattered showers spawning across the western Metro area. Mostly rain is expected for the lower elevations which will be largely too warm, but Foothills communities could pick up a few slushy inches this evening to nab a white Christmas after all! We discuss a bit of Christmas climatology for Boulder, the weather setup at hand today, the latest timing of the rain/snow showers, and just how much accumulation may fall this evening and where.

At a Glance:

• Weather Setup: A trough of low pressure is moving into the Four Corners area and will continue southeastward, staying well south of the Front Range as it passes
• Cold Front Timing: A cold front will move through from the northeast, leading to scattered showers in the western Metro area, especially in the Foothills, after 3 PM
• Rain or Snow? Temperatures will generally be too warm for snow below 6000 feet, but higher Foothills locations above 7000 feet could see several slushy inches
• Holiday Winter Travel:  Snow will increase through the afternoon in the higher terrain with up to moderate impacts expected across the Mountain passes and in the Foothills to the east from afternoon into the late evening.
• Christmas Climatology: Historically, Boulder has a 20% chance of recording snowfall on Christmas Day, but a much higher 55% chance of having some snow on the ground

Will there be a white Christmas? Yes for some, no for most!

he mildly anticipated trough of low pressure is progressing nicely into the Four Corners area this morning and will continue to trek southeastward through the day into tonight, staying well south of the Front Range in the process. The animation below is the forecast from the NAM model at 500mb — it shows the low pressure cutting off along the Colorado-New Mexico border this evening before reaching the Texas Panhandle area Thursday morning.

The petite low pressure can be seen in this morning’s GOES-East water vapor animation,, with the center of the weak low noted across southeast Utah. Out ahead of the storm system, a band of thick high clouds moved through the Front Range early this morning. However, there is a notable dry slot working in now which will bring some sunshine for us for a few hours this morning into early afternoon.

As the storm moves into position across southwest Colorado later today, a cold front will make its way through from the northeast leading to a brief period of convergence in and near the Foothills late this afternoon into the evening hours. This is the main setup feeding into a several hour period of scattered showers across the western Metro area. The HRRR model (below) shows quite extensive shower activity for 3 to 8 hours in the Foothills, with clearly some convective elements to these showers which may lead to snowfall rates greater than 1″ per hour at times in the higher terrain.

For the most part, temperatures will be too warm for snow below 6000 feet elevation — hard to believe that is the case on Christmas Day in northeast Colorado but here we are! However, if a more intense shower lingers it could produce enough cooling for a change-over briefly to wet snow. Any accumulation would be a dusting or less across the grass — but in general we’re not expecting any type of widespread accumulation for the Plains. The colder, higher Foothills locations above 7000 feet in Boulder and Jefferson Counties could see several slushy inches of snow pile up this evening, though! Our forecast calls for 2-5″, but locally up to 8″ may fall if a convective snow shower lingers for several hours. Watch for minor to borderline moderate travel impacts after 3PM in the Foothills (after 12PM in the Mountains). Our snowfall forecast map for this evening’s yuletide snow event is shown below.

We should see a mix of clouds and sunshine through the day, with that sunshine being attributed to the dry slot moving through. Highs will reach close to 50°F in most areas. Showers will begin to develop after 3PM, mostly for areas in and near the Foothills. Areas east of Interstate 25 may be totally dry today. All shower activity should quickly come to an end by midnight, if not a tad sooner.

We conclude with a look at Boulder’s historical Christmas Day weather. 2024 will likely end up “black” on the graphic below with no falling snow, no snow on the ground, and temperatures not staying below 32°F or rising above 60°F. Boring, right?!

When just considering the last 30 years, Boulder has a 20% chance of recording snowfall on Christmas Day, but a much higher 55% chance of having some snow on the ground. The graphic below compares all chances of snow on Christmas and surrounding days since 1991. The longer-term averages dating back to the 1940’s for Boulder (17% snowfall and 37% snow on ground) suggest we have been relatively more fortunate in the last few decades for winter weather on December 25th!

Here are some additional Santa Day snow tidbits for Boulder…

Top 5 Snow Depths on Christmas Day Since 1948:

• ~15″(1982, unofficial)
• 13″ (2006)
• 11″ (2011)
• 9″ (2007)
• 7″ (1983)

Top 5 Snowfalls on Christmas Day Since 1948:

• 6.7″ (2012)
• 5.9″ (2007)
• 2.9″ (1997)
• 2.5″ (1964)
• 2.2″ (2014)

How the Last Nine Christmas Days Played Out in Boulder:

• 2023: A fairly mild winter storm moved through on Christmas Eve producing about 2″ of snow in Boulder. This thin layer of snow stuck around until Christmas Day giving Boulder a white Christmas. 4-10″ of snow fell in the Foothills.
• 2022: An historic Arctic outbreak slammed the Front Range three days before Christmas with one of our most rapid temperature drops of all-time and some other record-breaking cold/snow aspects. This Arctic blast led to 3-8″ of snow accumulation across the Metro area and Foothills. Stuck in the Arctic chill, this snow persisted on the ground for several days to give most of us a white Christmas. Our actual Christmas Day weather was mild in the 50s with gusty downslope winds and sunshine.
• 2021: A significant atmospheric river event unfolded across Colorado in the days just before Christmas with two to four feet of snow falling across the San Juan Mountains. The moisture-infused atmospheric river was too warm for snow in the Denver Metro area leading to just a few rain showers on Christmas Eve. Christmas Day was sunny in the 50s with occasional gusty winds. Just one week later the Marshall Fire tragedy stuck following a record dry summer and autumn in Boulder County.
• 2020: High pressure dominated our weather on Christmas and the days prior leading to a definitively brown Christmas with highs nearly reaching 60 degrees with lots of sunshine.
• 2019: December 2019 was one of the least snowy December’s in Boulder history with only 3.4″ for the entire month. Christmas Day was no exception with no snow falling or present on the ground. There were quiet conditions in Boulder and partly sunny skies. The high was 50 degrees.
• 2018: No snow fell in Boulder for nearly three weeks leading up to Christmas 2018 and the day itself was rather mundane. The high was 44°F with mostly sunny skies and light winds.
• 2017: Two quick-moving light snow events dropped 7″ of new snow in Boulder in the few days leading up to Christmas 2017. With temperatures largely staying below 40 degrees, this snow persisted to Christmas Day with a depth of 4″ reported on the ground. No snow fell in Boulder on Christmas, though a favorable northwest flow pattern produced widespread accumulating snow in the Mountains this day. The high in Boulder was a cold 26°F after a morning low of 11°F.
• 2016: A strong storm system was pushing across Colorado/Wyoming this year, but the track was too far north and the Front Range got downsloped. A few convective rain/snow showers were reported in eastern Colorado, including brief thundersnow at DIA (no accumulation) which resided in the warm sector in the morning. However, it was dry and extremely windy in Boulder with gusts up to 80MPH around the area Christmas evening! The 4″ of snow that fell about a week before Christmas 2016 was long gone so there was no snow on the ground this year either.
• 2015: Light snow fell on the evening of Christmas 2015 and spilled over into the 26th totaling 2.6″. However, since Boulder’s record-keeping for the date ends at 6PM local time, there was no snow “officially” reported for the day.  There was snow on the ground though as nearly a foot of snow pummeled Boulder on December 15th and due to seasonally chilly conditions leading up the holiday, 2″ of that nasty snow remained on the ground in Boulder for Christmas.

Be sure to follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Bluesky and  Threads for impromptu weather updates as the storm unfolds, or subscribe to get notified of our long-form updates here. That’s all we have for now. Let it snow (in the Foothills)! 

From all of us at BoulderCAST,
                     we wish you a Happy Holidays!

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Ben Castellani

Ben grew up in southwestern Pennsylvania and holds both a bachelor's and a master's degree in Meteorology, the latter being from CU Boulder. His hometown received nearly three feet of snow from the Storm of the Century back in March of 1993, sparking his initial interest in impactful weather. Ben currently works on remote sensing and data analysis software at L3Harris Technologies in Boulder.

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