Still waiting on that first flake? You’re not alone. We’re nearly halfway through November, and Boulder hasn’t measured a single flake of snow yet. By now we’d normally have about 11 inches. This week won’t fix that. A stubborn omega block will build over the West and steer every storm around Colorado. That means another week of sunshine and 60s, with two dry cold fronts that barely make a dent. Meanwhile, parts of the Southeast US may see snow before we do. In the long range, though, there’s a hint of a pattern change around November 17–21. With last year’s latest-first-snow record suddenly within reach, a lot is riding on it. Read our full breakdown of the week ahead.
Category: Forecast (Page 1 of 198)
The tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America is running more than 10 degrees warmer than normal, and this historic El Niño is still strengthening. That raises the question everyone in Colorado is asking: does a super El Niño guarantee a snowy winter? To find out, we dug into the latest forecasts from 10 seasonal climate models, analyzed 131 years of Colorado weather records, and graded how well those models have performed here in the past. The official BoulderCAST winter outlook brings encouraging news for some parts of the state, especially along the Front Range and eastern plains. But for skiers hoping for a blockbuster season in the nearby mountains, the outlook is more complicated and more worrying. And we may have to wait several more months before winter actually shows up.
The weather world lost a small piece of its history this week with the sunset of the American NAM model. Coincidentally, this model and my meteorology career started almost exactly the same time in 2006. Since then, both have been on quite a journey. While technology marches forward and better models take its place, it’s impossible not to reflect on the role this one played, not just in forecasting, but in shaping the career of countless meteorologists, myself included.
Parts of southwest Colorado have picked up 15 to 20 inches of rain in the last 60 days, and this weekend’s storm pushed rivers across the Four Corners to historic levels with devastating results. Here on the Front Range, southwest flow kept us mostly dry again, with Sunday evening’s showers adding up to about a tenth of an inch.
The colder back half of that storm reaches us Monday. A cold front moving through this morning brings our best chance of rain from this system, though some parts of the Denver area are better positioned than others. Snow is on the way for the high country, temperatures will below normal, and another storm is approaching later this week. Here’s what to expect.
After months of worsening drought, southwest Colorado has flipped the script in dramatic fashion this fall. From Pagosa Springs to Durango to the entire San Juans, some locations have picked up an astonishing 15 to 20 inches of precipitation in just 60 days, erasing extreme drought conditions but ultimately triggering one of the region’s most significant flood events on record. What turned a parched landscape into a flood disaster in only eight weeks? We dive into the remarkable sequence of tropical moisture surges, the key role of a strengthening record El Niño, and why the same pattern that drenched southwest Colorado left Boulder and Denver largely high and dry.
The Front Range got a welcome surprise overnight as a steady rain event delivered more moisture than many locations were expecting. While today’s clouds, fog, and cool temperatures will keep autumn firmly in charge, they’re also the beginning of a much quieter stretch of weather ahead. Mother Nature will flip the script again with sunshine and temperatures climbing well above normal the rest of the week but don’t get too comfortable. Forecast models are already hinting at our next potential storm opportunity just beyond Halloween.
Last week’s storm finally delivered the kind of soaking rain we’ve been waiting months to see, but don’t get used to it. The atmosphere is shifting back into a familiar pattern this week, with summer-like warmth, abundant sunshine, and another surge of tropical moisture headed toward the Southwest. The catch? Most of that moisture will never make it to the Front Range. In this week’s update, we look at the drought-improving impacts of last week’s storm, why the San Juans are poised to cash in yet again, and whether a late-week cold front can squeeze out a little bit of rain for us before temperatures finally start feeling a bit more like October.
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