The tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America is running more than 10 degrees warmer than normal, and this historic El Niño is still strengthening. That raises the question everyone in Colorado is asking: does a super El Niño guarantee a snowy winter? To find out, we dug into the latest forecasts from 10 seasonal climate models, analyzed 131 years of Colorado weather records, and graded how well those models have performed here in the past. The official BoulderCAST winter outlook brings encouraging news for some parts of the state, especially along the Front Range and eastern plains. But for skiers hoping for a blockbuster season in the nearby mountains, the outlook is more complicated and more worrying. And we may have to wait several more months before winter actually shows up.
Author: BoulderCAST Team (Page 1 of 57)
This post had major contributions from at least two members of our team. The more meteorologists the better, right?
One soaking rainstorm, zero snowflakes and Boulder’s 17th straight warmer-than-normal month. Our October 2026 Climate Review breaks it all down, plus a look at how 2026 is well on-track to be the warmest year in Colorado history.
After months of worsening drought, southwest Colorado has flipped the script in dramatic fashion this fall. From Pagosa Springs to Durango to the entire San Juans, some locations have picked up an astonishing 15 to 20 inches of precipitation in just 60 days, erasing extreme drought conditions but ultimately triggering one of the region’s most significant flood events on record. What turned a parched landscape into a flood disaster in only eight weeks? We dive into the remarkable sequence of tropical moisture surges, the key role of a strengthening record El Niño, and why the same pattern that drenched southwest Colorado left Boulder and Denver largely high and dry.
12th Annual BoulderCAST First Snowfall Contest
Ready or not, snow season is lurking out there somewhere. Maybe you’ve already dusted off the skis, mounted the winter tires, or convinced yourself that buying an Epic Pass counts as meteorological preparedness. Now comes the big question: when will we see our first measurable snowfall of the season? If recent years have taught us anything, it’s that Mother Nature doesn’t always follow the script. We’ve experienced both the earliest and latest first snows on record within the last six years, proving that just about anything is on the table.
That’s why it’s time once again for the BoulderCAST First Snowfall Contest. Take a look at Boulder’s snowfall history within, then submit your prediction for the date of Boulder’s first measurable snow (0.1″ or greater) and how much will fall. The closest forecasts will earn prizes, bragging rights, and the satisfaction of being more accurate than your friends.
*This contest has closed to entries.*
September 2026 will be remembered as the month that put an exclamation point on an extraordinary water year of heat and dryness in Boulder, with less than 20% of normal precipitation falling during the month and temperatures more than five degrees above average. Despite a strong late-season monsoon, moisture largely avoided the Front Range, and especially Boulder County, culminating with a great modeling collapse of a significant rain event in the final days of the month tied to the remnants of Hurricane Polo.
Here’s a graphical look at how September 2026 unfolded across Boulder, Denver, and the Front Range — and how it compared to climatology.
A slow‑building, tropical‑charged system is about to make its move on Colorado — and the setup behind it is far more complex than your typical late‑September storm. As Hurricane Polo’s remnants collide with a impressive Pacific upper‑low, the stage is set for a rare, moisture‑laden system that could deliver anything from a major rain event to a near‑miss for Boulder and Denver. We break down why the models are struggling, what the key track differences mean for your neighborhood, and where flooding and high‑elevation snow may become real concerns as the storm unfolds.
UPDATED Tuesday Sep 26 5:00PM: Updated rainfall forecast map and some wording to account for growing confidence the bulk of the storm will miss the Denver Metro area.
The pattern is gradually shifting across Colorado, with lingering moisture keeping Thursday cool and cloudy before drier, warmer weather settles in for the weekend. Beyond that, the forecast becomes much less certain as the first significant autumn trough approaches from the west and potentially interacts with the remnants of Hurricane Polo across the southern Rockies. There are several possible outcomes for early next week in the Front Range, ranging from a quick cooldown with some showers to a much wetter setup. We break down what the models are showing, what we’re confident in, and what remains uncertain.
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