Still waiting on that first flake? You’re not alone. We’re nearly halfway through November, and Boulder hasn’t measured a single flake of snow yet. By now we’d normally have about 11 inches. This week won’t fix that. A stubborn omega block will build over the West and steer every storm around Colorado. That means another week of sunshine and 60s, with two dry cold fronts that barely make a dent. Meanwhile, parts of the Southeast US may see snow before we do. In the long range, though, there’s a hint of a pattern change around November 17–21. With last year’s latest-first-snow record suddenly within reach, a lot is riding on it. Read our full breakdown of the week ahead.
The tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America is running more than 10 degrees warmer than normal, and this historic El Niño is still strengthening. That raises the question everyone in Colorado is asking: does a super El Niño guarantee a snowy winter? To find out, we dug into the latest forecasts from 10 seasonal climate models, analyzed 131 years of Colorado weather records, and graded how well those models have performed here in the past. The official BoulderCAST winter outlook brings encouraging news for some parts of the state, especially along the Front Range and eastern plains. But for skiers hoping for a blockbuster season in the nearby mountains, the outlook is more complicated and more worrying. And we may have to wait several more months before winter actually shows up.
The weather world lost a small piece of its history this week with the sunset of the American NAM model. Coincidentally, this model and my meteorology career started almost exactly the same time in 2006. Since then, both have been on quite a journey. While technology marches forward and better models take its place, it’s impossible not to reflect on the role this one played, not just in forecasting, but in shaping the career of countless meteorologists, myself included.
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