The tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America is running more than 10 degrees warmer than normal, and this historic El Niño is still strengthening. That raises the question everyone in Colorado is asking: does a super El Niño guarantee a snowy winter? To find out, we dug into the latest forecasts from 10 seasonal climate models, analyzed 131 years of Colorado weather records, and graded how well those models have performed here in the past. The official BoulderCAST winter outlook brings encouraging news for some parts of the state, especially along the Front Range and eastern plains. But for skiers hoping for a blockbuster season in the nearby mountains, the outlook is more complicated and more worrying. And we may have to wait several more months before winter actually shows up.
The weather world lost a small piece of its history this week with the sunset of the American NAM model. Coincidentally, this model and my meteorology career started almost exactly the same time in 2006. Since then, both have been on quite a journey. While technology marches forward and better models take its place, it’s impossible not to reflect on the role this one played, not just in forecasting, but in shaping the career of countless meteorologists, myself included.
One soaking rainstorm, zero snowflakes and Boulder’s 17th straight warmer-than-normal month. Our October 2026 Climate Review breaks it all down, plus a look at how 2026 is well on-track to be the warmest year in Colorado history.
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