This Week in Colorado Weather: February 16, 2026

This week’s highlights include:

🌬️ A powerful longwave trough dominates the week as multiple shortwaves bring Mountain snow and Plains fire danger through Friday.

🔥 Critical fire weather Monday–Wednesday with RH near or below 15%, mild temps, and increasingly strong downslope winds — Tuesday looks especially dangerous with gusts 35–50 MPH, with 65+ MPH possible east of Denver.

🏔️ Mountains score big snow totals as two moisture‑rich plumes arrive Monday night into Thursday — widespread 4-12″, with 8-20″ for Steamboat, Aspen, and the San Juans; locally up to 2 feet.

⚠️ Travel impacts likely in the Mountains — blowing/drifting snow and periods of heavy snowfall may force intermittent High Country road closures, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

🚨 A busy weather alert map: Red Flag Warnings, Fire Weather Watches, High Wind Watches, Winter Weather Advisories, and Winter Storm Warnings blanket the state!

🌡️ Temperatures steadily fall — warmest day is Monday (60s), then a sharp cooldown into Thursday’s cold front, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s to end the week.

🌨️ Late‑week snow chance for the Plains? Ensemble guidance leans dry, but a minority cluster still hints at a more favorable trough position. For now, odds remain low with only very light accumulations even possible around Boulder and Denver.

🌀 Mountains stay active late week with continued light–moderate snow as the trough shifts east.

DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, among many other perks, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.

A High‑Impact Week Ahead for Colorado: Fire, Wind, and Mountain Snow All on the Table

olorado is gearing up for an active — and at times dangerous — stretch of weather this week. The state will be split right down the middle: heavy, much‑needed snowfall for the Mountains and critical fire danger across the Plains. A deep, stubborn longwave trough will anchor itself over the West, sending a parade of shortwaves directly into Colorado from now through Friday. In other words, we’ll be living under the influence of this trough for most of the work-week leading to a busy stretch of weather ahead.

Below, the GFS progression of mean sea‑level pressure and 6‑hourly precipitation illustrates the conveyor belt of energy sliding across the region. The Mountains will benefit with multiple rounds of snow to help the struggling snowpack, while the Plains face repeated bouts of warm, dry downslope flow and dangerous fire weather. Let’s walk through the setup.

Fire Weather: A Multi‑Day Threat for the Plains

Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings are already in effect, and this theme will dominate the first half of the week. Monday brings regionwide critical RH values — 15% or lower — though winds will be somewhat tame compared to what’s coming Tuesday.

Highs Monday will climb into the mid to upper 60s across the Plains with light north‑northeast winds around Denver and Boulder. The most concerning fire behavior on Monday will be south of Denver, where west‑southwest gusts of 20–35 MPH will be common across the Palmer Divide and parts of the Jefferson County Foothills.

Late Monday night into Tuesday, the trough tightens its grip. A screaming upper‑level jet — topping 180 MPH at commercial cruising altitude — overspreads the state. That momentum mixes downward, strengthening the low‑level flow.

Winds around 5000 feet above ground level will exceed 65 MPH, and while not all of that reaches the surface, widespread gusts of 35–50 MPH are expected across the Denver Metro. Gusts near 65 MPH can’t be ruled out east of Denver.

With RH values staying critical and temperatures in the mid‑50s, Tuesday is shaping up to be a very dangerous fire weather day. The Storm Prediction Center has unleashed a rare Extreme Risk for parts of northeast Colorado on Tuesday. This hashing is only used a few times per year generally. With this, we fully expect the current Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday to be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning covering all of Colorado east of the Continental Divide.

The expansive trough will send another wave of energy into the area on Wednesday. The setup will be eerily similar, with southwest winds aloft and at the surface. Temperatures, though will be lower in the low to middle 50s. And wind gusts currently do not appear to be as worrisome for our immediate area. But nevertheless, we’ll likely see critical or near-critical fire conditions on Wednesday as well for portions of eastern Colorado.

Mountain Weather: Continued Much-Needed Snowfall

While most of us on the Plains suffer under the repeated fire threat, the Mountains will see the exact opposite weather. Strong southwest flow at low and mid‑levels will provide steady upslope into the higher terrain. The first moisture plume — a remnant of the atmospheric river hammering the Sierra Nevada with 5–8 feet of snow — arrives Monday night and lasts through Tuesday. Precipitable water values run nearly two standard deviations above normal, making this the juiciest of the week’s systems.

A second plume arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday. It’s not as moisture‑rich but still above seasonal norms. Both plumes will significantly benefit the snowpack, especially across western and southwestern Colorado.

Our PowderCAST forecast highlights widespread snowfall for all ski areas Tuesday and Wednesday. A third system may arrive Friday, though confidence is lower.

Snow totals through Thursday:

• Front Range Mountain zones: 4 to 12 inches
• Park Range, San Juans, central Mountains: 8 to 20 inches, locally up to 2 feet

The same powerful jet draped over the state will also be impacting the Mountains through the week with blowing and drifting snow most days. Travel over any Mountain passes will be tricky to downright treacherous at times. We fully expect to see road closures in the High Country during periods where heavy snowfall occurs alongside the wind. Tuesday morning into afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon are the most likely timeframes for road closures to occur.

Current Alerts Across Colorado

Colorado’s hazard map early this week is lit up like a Christmas tree. Here’s the current breakdown…

• Red Flag Warning for Monday: Palmer Divide, east central and southeast Plains of Colorado.
• Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday: All areas east of the Continental Divide — with the potential for a “Particularly Dangerous Situation” designation south and east of Denver
• High Wind Watch for Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon: Portions of the Eastern Plains southeast of Denver where gusts up to 65 MPH may occur.
• Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday morning into Wednesday night: Front Range Mountains and I-70 Corridor to Vail Pass. 4 to 12 inches of snow, blowing snow, and dangerous travel with gusts to 65 MPH.
• Winter Storm Warning for Monday night into Thursday morning: Most other Mountain ranges statewide. 8 to 20 inches with locally higher totals. Winds gusting to 70 MPH with treacherous travel.

Late‑Week Pattern Shift: Colder, Maybe Snow?

Monday will be the warmest day of the week on the Plains. From there, temperatures steadily step down. The biggest drop comes Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front sweeps south.

That front should alleviate our fire concerns as upslope flow returns, colder temps arrive, and moisture levels increase. Highs to close out the week will struggle to get out of the 30s.

Precipitation chances remain limited through midweek thanks to persistent downslope flow. But the GEFS ensemble hints at the potential for some precipitation in the Metro area late Wednesday into Friday tied to jet energy, that front or overshooting precipitation from the Divide.

Along with that pattern change, the large trough will be making its final swing eastward. How this trough makes its final push is not as clear cut this far out. If we look at the various ensemble cluster scenarios, clusters 1, 2, and the mean, indicate a rather broad eastward progression, which would favor a continued dry pattern, albeit cold to chilly, for the Plains. These would also favor another period of light to moderate snow in the Mountains. But clusters 3 and 4, which represent about 70% of the ECMWF ensemble members, show a more developed trough over Utah/Nevada. If that were to occur, it could give the Plains a better shot at snow.

Unfortunately, the machine‑learning models (EC‑AIFS and AI‑GFS) side with the drier ensemble mean. They show renewed drying east of the Divide and moistening over the Mountains. So while we’ll keep an eye on it, the odds of meaningful snow for Boulder/Denver late week remain low for now.

Bottomline

Colorado is entering a classic split‑state pattern this week: fire danger and wind dominating the Plains while the Mountains enjoy a multi‑day snow event. The trough overhead will keep conditions dicey, especially Tuesday and Wednesday when fire weather and high winds peak. Meanwhile, the High Country will see some of its best snowfall in months — a welcome boost to the struggling snowpack but a headache for travel given the coincident high winds.

A late‑week cold front will finally break the warm, dry pattern, but whether it delivers snow to the Front Range cities remains uncertain. For now, expect colder temperatures, continued Mountain snow, and an easing of fire danger as we head into the late-week period and weekend.

Enjoy!

Forecast Specifics:

Monday: Increasing clouds, remaining mild with mid to upper 60s on the Plains and middle 50s in the Foothills. Critical fire weather concerns south of Denver today with low RH and gusts of 15 to 30 MPH there.

Tuesday: A possible “Particularly Dangerous Situation” fire weather day for parts of eastern Colorado, with middle 50s on the Plains combined with very low RH and gusts of 40-45 MPH. Some gusts up to 65 MPH possible east of Denver. Highs in the Foothills in the middle 40s.

Wednesday:  Another near-critical or critical fire danger day with downslope drying on the Plains and highs in the low/mid 50s on the Plains and lower 40s in the Foothills. Greatest fire risk will be south and southeast of Denver.

Thursday and Friday:  Trending cold and below normal with upper 30s to low 40s on the Plains and upper 20s to low 30s in the Foothills. We could see a chance of snow Thursday or Friday, but that chance is about 20% right now.

Weekend: Disregarding the low-end snow chance for Friday, the pattern looks dry and cold, with a gradual return to normal by Sunday.

DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, among many other perks, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.

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Andy

Born and raised in St. Louis, Andrew obtained a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Colorado in 2015. From 2015 to 2020, he worked remotely in Boulder as an atmospheric scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Andy is now a full-time meteorologist.

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