The saga for our first measurable snowfall of the season is finally over, in Boulder at least. In a rather uninspiring fashion, the city reported its first official snowfall early Wednesday morning before sunrise. Let’s review how it happened, check in how this fits in with climatology, and congratulate the winners of our 2021 First Snow Contest!
Better late than never!
It looks like the Euro finally hit the mark with last night’s meager showing of snow bands. After several failed ploys in recent weeks, this time the Euro was the only weather model to consistently predict a light dusting of snow accumulation across the Front Range multiple days in advance. Other models were bone-dry with downslope wiping out any chance of snow for the Denver area.
Some of the high-resolution models finally did pick up on the potential for Front Range snow Tuesday evening, but amounts were still expected to be a dusting or less. The HRRR model’s short-range forecast was spot on in terms of timing, coverage and eventual snowfall amounts.
#Boulder's last chance to avoid breaking the latest first accumulating snowfall record is this light band of jet-forced snow that could develop after midnight tonight. Most of these flakes won't reach the ground & those that do probably won't stick. Let's go! #COwx pic.twitter.com/yrexzTo5Mt
— BoulderCAST Weather (@BoulderCAST) November 17, 2021
Sure enough, just after midnight early Wednesday morning snow bands began to develop and sag across the area from the northwest. The atmosphere was still quite dry overall, so despite looking rather impressive on composite radar, the bands produced mainly just flurries or very light snowfall.
Radar animation from the area early Wednesday morning showing the developing snow bands over the Boulder area
With a several hour window of these bands sitting in the same locations, the snow did actually accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces in spots as temperatures tumbled well below freezing. The map below shows the observed snowfall totals from Boulder County from the overnight period. 1 to 3″ fell in the Foothills (woohoo!), but most interestingly, a dusting of snow was reported across portions of the lower elevations, too.
Officially, the Boulder climate station (located along South Broadway near 27th Way) reported 0.3″ making this the elusive and much-anticipated first snowfall of the season for the city! If you recall, some portions of Boulder and the surrounding area did receive a dusting of graupel all the way back on October 12th, but the official station missed out on that one.
It counts. Boulder officially got it's first measurable snow this morning. DIA/Denver is still waiting, along with many other metro area locations that just received a trace. #cowx
— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) November 17, 2021
While the Boulder climate record indicates that November 26, 1978 was the latest first snowfall documented for the city, it has come to our attention that it actually did snow earlier that year but the record was incomplete. With this, conveniently this year has fallen into a tie with 2016 for the latest snowfall on record.
Before jumping to any rushed conclusions about climate change, let’s remember that one year ago we had our earliest ever snowfall on record on September 8th. Furthermore, the long-term average and trend, though clearly not statistically significant, are leaning towards earlier occurrences of our first snowfall.
A broader look at snowfall observations last night from the Denver Metro area shows a lack of any accumulation around Denver proper. This is because the overnight snow bands primarily sat over Boulder, Larimer and Weld Counties and mostly dissipated before reaching Denver. Denver International Airport reported no snow from this event, so sadly the Mile High City is still waiting anxiously for their first snow!
While this was surely the most anti-climatic way to end the long-winded saga for our inaugural snowfall of the season, we’re glad it’s over and done with. Let’s hope our second one is a little more impressive!
BoulderCAST 2021 First Snow Contest Results
With Boulder’s first snow of the season in the bag, it’s time to announce the winners of our 7th Annual First Snow Contest. There were more than 200 entries this year which are summarized in the table below (click to enlarge).
Here are some quick facts about the predictions:
- Dates ranged from September 21st to December 6th
- Amounts ranged from 0.1 to 11 inches
- The median date of the guesses was October 18th. This is two days earlier than climatology.
- The most popular date chosen was October 10th which was selected six times.
- 86% of entries predicted a first snow of 4.0 inches or less
The verification of Boulder’s first official snowfall was November 17, 2021 at an amount of 0.3″.
Congratulations to the winners detailed below. Prizes will be sent out via email in the coming days so do keep an eye on your inbox!
- 1st place: 12-month Premium subscription + $30 Amazon Gift Card
- Lorena C
- 2nd place: 6-month Premium subscription + $10 Amazon Gift Card
- Lorene M
- Anyone who guessed within 1 day OR 0.1″ correct: 2-month Premium subscription
- Jorge A
- Gayle S
- Coloradojeff
- Laurie L
- All other entries: Virtual “pat on the back”
- More than 200 others
If you didn’t win, don’t worry. We’ll definitely host more weather-related contests periodically throughout the year, so do check back or subscribe.
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