*Contest closes May 30, 2018 at 11:59 PM*
All of our previous contests have involved predicting some aspect of snowfall in Boulder. This changes today! Your goal this time around will be forecasting how intense the summer heat will be during the upcoming months of June, July and August. To help you along with your prediction, we provide a brief overview of the climatology and cover what the models are predicting for this summer. Prizes include a $50 Amazon gift card and Premium subscriptions. Get your forecast in now!
Contest info
PRIMARY FORECAST: How many 90+ degree days will Boulder see between June 1 and August 31?
FIRST TIE-BREAKER: What will be the warmest temperature recorded in Boulder between June 1 and August 31?
SECOND TIE-BREAKER: What will be the longest streak of 90+ degree days in Boulder between June 1 and August 31?
For forecast verification, we’ll use the official Boulder climate station located at the NIST building in south Boulder.
Prizes
- First Place: $50 Amazon Gift Card & 6-month subscription to Premium
- Second Place: 6-month subscription to Premium
- Third-Place: 3-month subscription to Premium
- Anyone Who Guesses Any Two Forecasts Exactly Correct: 3-month subscription to Premium
- Anyone Who Guesses Any One Forecast Exactly Correct: 1-month subscription to Premium
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Potentially Helpful Climatology
How many 90+ degree days does Boulder see normally from June through August (J-J-A)? According to climatology since 1950, the “normal” amount is 28 or 29 days.
However, the overall count is quite variable year-to-year, ranging from just 5 in 1992 to 55 in 2012. The graphic below depicts every June, July, and August day in Boulder since 1950. Days colored in orange reached at least 90 degrees. Days colored in maroon surpassed 100 degrees! The number to the right of each row is the total number of 90+ degree days that occurred each year.
What about the warmest temperature each year? The histogram below contains data since 1950 and speaks to this. As you can see, the warmest temperature each year is generally between the mid 90’s and the low 100’s, with a normal of 98 degrees. The range spans from 94 degrees to 104 degrees, though. Keep this in mind for your forecast!
Finally…what about the potential for heat waves in Boulder….that is, consecutive days where the temperature reaches at least 90 degrees. Since 1950, the longest heat wave recorded in Boulder was 14 days (August 1-14, 1958). However, there is a lot of spread in potential heat waves each summer. If your forecast for longest streak is between 3 and 12 days, you should be in good shape!
Potentially Helpful Model Predictions and Thoughts
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL
The long-range guidance of the CFS climate model suggests that the Front Range will be warmer than normal in June, but cooler than normal in July and August. For the three-month period, the CFS predicts near normal temperatures overall.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
The three-month temperature outlook released last week by the Climate Prediction Center follows along with the general pattern observed in the CFS forecast. They predict a warm summer for areas near and west of the Rocky Mountains. For the Front Range, there are elevated odds of above normal temperatures predicted, but the CPC is clearly less certain about our region than for the Desert Southwest, for instance.
NEUTRAL TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
La Niña is no more. The sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean are more or less normal right now. The latest temperature anomaly map below shows mixing wave structures along the equator, with a smattering of warm and cold anomalies throughout the NINO 3.4 region. The most recent weekly NINO 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C.
Probabilistic ENSO forecasts project a shift towards El Niño this fall, which is becoming more and more believable with each passing day. However, this summer ENSO is expected with near 70% certainty to remain neutral. This status provides little forcing to our weather through the summer, and thus, shouldn’t play too much into your forecast.
Good luck with your prediction! Enter below….
*THIS CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED TO ENTRIES*
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