The tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America is running more than 10 degrees warmer than normal, and this historic El Niño is still strengthening. That raises the question everyone in Colorado is asking: does a super El Niño guarantee a snowy winter? To find out, we dug into the latest forecasts from 10 seasonal climate models, analyzed 131 years of Colorado weather records, and graded how well those models have performed here in the past. The official BoulderCAST winter outlook brings encouraging news for some parts of the state, especially along the Front Range and eastern plains. But for skiers hoping for a blockbuster season in the nearby mountains, the outlook is more complicated and more worrying. And we may have to wait several more months before winter actually shows up.
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After months of worsening drought, southwest Colorado has flipped the script in dramatic fashion this fall. From Pagosa Springs to Durango to the entire San Juans, some locations have picked up an astonishing 15 to 20 inches of precipitation in just 60 days, erasing extreme drought conditions but ultimately triggering one of the region’s most significant flood events on record. What turned a parched landscape into a flood disaster in only eight weeks? We dive into the remarkable sequence of tropical moisture surges, the key role of a strengthening record El Niño, and why the same pattern that drenched southwest Colorado left Boulder and Denver largely high and dry.
Boulder just endured its driest water year on record, closing out twelve months with only 10.65 inches of precipitation — barely half of normal and nearly at desert-level. From a failed snow season to record spring warmth and a monsoon that largely bypassed the city, every season conspired to keep Boulder locked in a warm‑and‑dry feedback loop. Reservoirs and upstream snow storage will cushion the blow for now, but the bigger question looms: what happens if we start stringing years like this together?
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