This Week in Colorado Weather: August 25, 2025

The unsettled weather pattern isn’t done with us just yet—and that’s good news for the rain-starved Front Range. While recent days have underdelivered in most areas, this week still holds promise for more moisture and continued cool weather. We break down when and where the best rain chances will line up this week, why optimism is cautious, and what to watch for as the pattern turns warmer and drier heading into Labor Day Weekend.

This week’s highlights include:

Scant Rainfall So Far: The heaviest rain thus far has fallen to our southwest, with generally less than a quarter inch of rain over this past weekend in the immediate Boulder/Denver area.
Stormy Start to the Week: Most models suggest daily chances for showers and storms, especially Monday through Wednesday, driven by deep moisture and upper-level lift from interacting troughs and jet streaks.
Moisture Surge: Precipitable water values will be unusually high for late August (up to 1.3″), signaling strong monsoonal influence early in the week before drying takes over by Friday.
Cooler Temps & Surface Setup: A stalled front and easterly flow from high pressure to the east will keep highs below normal—mostly 60s to 70s early week, warming to low 80s by Friday.
Rainfall Risks & Uncertainty: NOAA’s WPC flags Marginal to Slight risk for heavy rain early week, Localized totals could reach 1.5″, though model spread remains wide. The greatest flooding risk will be across the burn scars early in the week.
Pacific Perking Up? Tropical Storm Juliette has formed offshore from Baja California and will track parallel to the coast, with little consequence to Colorado.

DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, among many other perks, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.

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Rain Disappoints Again

ince that chilly, moisture-laden front rolled through late Thursday, the Front Range has been enjoying a refreshing cooldown. But if you’ve been hoping for a good soaking in the Denver Metro area, it’s been mostly a dry story. The bulk of the weekend rain slid south—Colorado Springs, Pikes Peak, and South Park got the lion’s share, something we warned could happen in our last update.

Zooming in, most lower elevations barely cracked a quarter inch of rain. Western Boulder County’s Foothills were the exception, picking up a healthy 0.8″ in spots. But officially Boulder logged just 0.09″, while Denver International Airport has seen little more than a trace.

4-day rainfall total in the Front Range, ending Monday morning (8/25/25) at 7AM.

The good news? This unsettled weather pattern isn’t leaving us just yet. That means we’ve still got a shot at picking up some much-needed rain across the Front Range this week. That said, after weeks of Mother Nature failing to deliver, it’s hard to be optimistic.

Colorado Forecast Update: Record warmth quickly gives way to a prolonged cool & wet stretch across the Front Range

A Wetter Week Ahead for the Front Range?

It’s shaping up to be a potentially unsettled stretch across the Front Range, with most forecast models—both deterministic and ensemble—hinting at daily chances for showers and storms. The GEFS ensemble leans toward the best odds landing early to midweek, with things possibly drying out a bit by Friday and into the weekend.

Let’s walk through what’s driving this pattern and when we might see the most impactful rainfall.

Upper-Level Setup: Troughs, Jet Streaks, and Moisture

The GFS model’s 250-mb animation from Monday through Friday (below) shows a fairly consistent story across guidance: a persistent trough parked to our west and another to the east. These features will interact to funnel deep moisture and lift over Colorado—especially early in the week.

We’re also tracking a few embedded jet streaks, particularly Monday through Wednesday. These could enhance lift via the jet’s right entrance region, which sets up over the Central Plains. The result? Cloudier skies and daily chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms from the High Country down to the Plains.

By Friday, the western trough starts shifting into Wyoming and Montana, nudging us toward a more downslope flow. That should bring drier, warmer conditions—but even then, temps will likely stay below seasonal norms as we head into Labor Day weekend.

Mid-Summer Monsoon Update: Off to a slow start, but that is starting to change!

Moisture Content: High for Late August

Precipitable water values are running well above average for this time of year—most guidance shows 1.1 to 1.3 inches through midweek. That’s unusually high for late August in Colorado, especially this late in such a dreadful monsoon season. As the trough migrates eastward later in the week, we should see a drying trend kick in.

Surface Features: Cool Flow and a Stalled Front

At the surface, high pressure over the central U.S. is keeping us in a cool easterly flow. A cold front looks to stall over central Colorado early in the week, most noticeable Monday through Wednesday. It may weaken later on, but it’ll likely linger through Friday.

Expect highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s early in the week, with a slight bump toward the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. Even with warming Thursday and Friday, we’re still looking at temperatures under 80°—below the typical mid-80s we’d expect to wrap up August.

Risk of Heavy Rain

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed much of Colorado under a Marginal (Level 1) to Slight (Level 2) risk for heavy rainfall through midweek. Monday’s highest risk zone stretches from Denver south into New Mexico. Monday on paper does have the highest flash flood risk, mainly only in the burn scar areas in the higher terrain.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk for Monday

By Wednesday, the entire state of Colorado shifts to a Marginal category. These maps will be updated as we progress through the week, so stay tuned. For now, expect the best rain chances for the week on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday (50%+), with lower chances by the latter part of the week (less than 50%).

WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk for Wednesday

Severe weather isn’t strongly signaled for Monday, but a rogue strong storm can’t be ruled out with penny-sized hail and 45 MPH wind gusts.

As for rainfall totals, models are all over the place—as usual. The optimistic end suggests localized totals up to 1.5 inches by late Thursday. Shown be is the GFS forecast:

The NAM, on the other hand, paints a more modest picture: around 0.25 to 0.5 inches, with higher amounts along the Palmer Divide and Foothills.

Bottom line: exact storm coverage and placement remains uncertain this week, but the overall setup is a promising one for meaningful rainfall at least a few of the days. Temperatures will remain below normal through the week, mostly in the 70s.

If you’ve got outdoor plans for the upcoming holiday weekend, keep an eye on the forecast. We do expect this unsettled pattern to relax somewhat over the weekend with lower chances for rain. However, it won’t be totally dry, especially in the higher terrain, where daily thunderstorms will remain in the mix. After more than a week below normal, temperatures will return towards seasonal heading into Labor Day.

Flash flooding possible in coming days as tropical moisture descends on our region

Watching the Tropics

The tropical Eastern Pacific is showing some life right now, with Tropical Storm Juliette on the radar. As of Monday morning, Juliette has sustained winds at 40 MPH and is forecast to stay offshore from Baja California.

If that path nudges a bit farther north, we could see some of its moisture sneak into parts of Mexico or even the Desert Southwest. That’s something to keep an eye on, especially for any monsoonal enhancement or late-season rainfall potential.

Cold today, hot tomorrow, and the remnants of Hurricane Rosa coming early next week

Forecast Specifics:

Monday and Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and storms for the Foothills and Plains. Some may produce heavy rainfall, with a slight risk of flooding in the burn scars. Highs generally in the low to middle 70s for the Plains and middle 60s in the Foothills.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms possible in the afternoon and evening. Highs warmer but still below normal in the middle 70s across the Plains and upper 60s in the Foothills.

Thursday and Friday: Partly cloudy skies with a continued chance of afternoon and evening storms. Somewhat drier overall with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s on the Plains and upper 60s in the Foothills.

Weekend: Trending drier and slightly more seasonal with highs in the upper 70s or lower 80s.