Category: Verification (Page 45 of 53)

These posts take a look back at recent weather events, like snow storms or severe weather outbreaks, and evaluate how the forecast played out. We evaluate how well the models predicted what actually occurred, and offer insight into what can be learned and applied moving forward.

Amidst this warm October, where’s the snow?

October 20, 2016 / Ben Castellani

Do you know what today is? If you’re thinking October 20th, while correct, you’re missing the more important point. Today is the climatological median date of Boulder’s first measurable snowfall! This means that exactly half of the time, the season’s first snow occurs before this date, while half of the time it occurs after. While we understand you’re disappointed to know that 2016 is officially in the bottom half of our climatology percentiles, fear not. The odds of our first snow remaining at-large is decreasing every day! We discuss where the snow has been this year, and what lies ahead as we close out the month of October.

This week in weather: October 3, 2016

October 3, 2016 / Ben Castellani

After two straight weeks of mostly sunny and warm conditions, the week ahead will feature quintessential Colorado fall weather. With the passage of two cold fronts, we’ll transition from the 80’s early in the week, through wind, rain and cold…to the potential for snowflakes by week’s end. Continue reading for our complete outlook of the week ahead.

Looking ahead to October: Climatology and this year’s outlook

September 30, 2016 / Ben Castellani

While the fire ban has been recently lifted in many Front Range counties, September did little to relieve the parched landscape with yet another month of well below normal precipitation. Will October offer up the soaking rain and mountain snow that we desperately need? Read on as we examine Boulder’s climatology and consider the current state of the atmosphere to give our outlook for the next month.

Hello Fall: A look back at August and ahead to September

September 1, 2016 / Ben Castellani

Let us be the first to welcome you to fall! That’s right…summer is no more, at least to us weather folks. September 1st marks the beginning of meteorological autumn. Picture-perfect weather has been a mainstay throughout the summer, which is both good and bad. The monsoon plume has largely been confined to our south and west, keeping the Front Range relatively parched, leading to dry and at times, dangerous fire conditions. Will this trend continue into September? Read on as we examine Boulder’s climatology and consider the current state of the atmosphere to give our outlook for next month.

Drought officially returns to Colorado; limited respite in sight

August 17, 2016 / Ben Castellani

Summer is the one time of year when you don’t need us meteorologists. You already know the weather for today (and everyday) will start sunny, warm into the 90’s, then promptly cloud up and produce a brief storm which generates a “just okay” rainbow before another stunning Colorado sunset. If it feels like we’ve been enjoying a much nicer, less rainbow-filled summer than normal, you’re not alone, nor imagining things. It’s been dry. Historically dry.

We discuss the official return of drought to Colorado and provide our thoughts on the outlook heading into September.

This week in weather: August 8, 2016

August 8, 2016 / Ben Castellani

Following four days of unseasonably cool temperatures, this week begins warm as moderately-moist southwest flow dominates the region. By mid-week, moisture associated with two tropical cyclones spreads into Colorado alongside a cold front from the north. With this, we’ll see storm chances increase and temperatures fall once again. Read on for our complete weekly outlook.

This week in weather: August 1, 2016

August 1, 2016 / Andy

The last seven days have been quite dry across Boulder and the Denver Metro. We have also seen swings in temperature from the 90’s to the 80’s with a few frontal systems. This first week of August will start off warm in the 90’s, with a transition to cooler weather by week’s end. Wait until you see how chilly we are forecasting for Friday! Thunderstorms will be possible each day, although our best shot appears to hold out until the end of the work-week. Read on for this week’s full forecast.

Weekend outlook: Adding to our 300 days of sunshine

May 19, 2016 / Ben Castellani

For the past several weeks, we have largely received the short end of the stick in regards to weekend weather. If it wasn’t rain, it was snow. If it wasn’t snow, it was the cold and fog. Mother Nature’s timing couldn’t have been more unfortunate, with storm after storm arriving promptly at the end of each work-week. However, this week we finally break this pattern as conditions quiet down and heat up across the Front Range. Continue reading for our full weekend outlook and when we expect the rain to return.