The never-ending heat is back for another encore performance this week. Slight chances for rain will exist, but overall we’re in for another mainly dry week with scorching temperatures. Mid-level winds will usher in more smoke across the area as well. Read on for all the details.
This week’s highlights include:
- A strong ridge of high pressure sits over Utah the entire week
- Highs remain in the 90’s through the week and upcoming weekend
- Only slight chances for rain in the near-term, with the best chance being Thursday
- Smoke from wildfires burning to our west and northwest will continue to reduce air quality across the region
- We’re watching a MAJOR hurricane forecast to develop in the eastern Pacific Ocean
DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.
Another hot & mainly dry week
Aridge of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather this week with hot and dry conditions persisting through the next seven days. The 500mb height anomaly forecast map below for mid-day Monday pinpoints the location of the strong high pressure across Utah and Nevada, with weak northwest flow present over Colorado. This positioning and flow pattern will continue to support above normal temperatures in the Front Range, though the heat won’t be extreme with northwest flow not typically favorable for record heat.
As the week progresses, the dome of high pressure will remain nearly stationary but is forecast to weaken slightly. This can be seen in the GFS 500 mb height anomaly animation below which runs through Saturday evening. Notice how the center of the high moves very little between now and then and how the deeper reds fade which is indicative of weakening.
All in all, the airmass beneath this ridge remains very warm and dry so highs in the low to middle 90’s will characterize the week ahead. Both Boulder and Denver are currently riding a 6-day 90+°F day streak. This likely won’t end until early next week with the streak growing to at least 13 days.
It’s not until Wednesday and Thursday this week that a better chance of showers and storms return to the forecast. It’s around this time that we begin to see some recirculated Pacific moisture move into Colorado from the northwest. As it stands now, storm chances appear to be better Thursday compared to Wednesday with a weak shortwave progged to move across the area Thursday afternoon teaming up with the influx of moisture.
With this sluggish atmospheric setup, we’re likely to see continued smoke across the area with poor air quality much of the week ahead. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see a few new large fires pop-up as well. It’s been that kind of summer.
Looking ahead to the rest of August, temperatures are expected to largely remain above normal with little sign of any major cool-downs headed our way. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts increased chances of above normal temperatures in both their 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks (shown below). This doesn’t mean that there won’t be the occasional weak cold front (in fact, we might get one early next week), but any cooler weather would be minor and short-lived under this pattern.
As we are now heading into the end of August, peak hurricane season is upon us. There are currently two systems to watch in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Fausto and Tropical Storm Genevieve. The latter is forecast to move northwest and become a major hurricane in the next day or two.
Fortunately, the large ridge of high pressure across the American Southwest should help to steer this strong hurricane away from land, though it will be very close to hitting Baja California. The moisture from Genevieve will eventually get pulled into the Desert Southwest, but that doesn’t look to happen until early next week.
Forecast Specifics:
Monday: Mostly sunny and hot with a few afternoon clouds . Highs temperatures in the middle 90’s across the Plains and lower 80’s in the Foothills.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and continued hot with one or two weak storms developing in the afternoons Any storms would produce gusty winds and little to no rain. Highs in the middle 90’s on the Plains and lower 80’s in the Foothills.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and hot with a slight chance of isolated late-day storms. Highs in the lower 90’s on the Plains and upper 70’s in the Foothills.
Thursday: Morning sunshine, then widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90’s on the Plains and upper 70’s in the Foothills.
Friday: Drier and continued hot with a slight chance of afternoon storms, mainly south of Denver. Highs in the low to middle 90’s on the Plains and near 80 in the Foothills.
Weekend: Hot weather will persist through the upcoming weekend with highs in the low to middle 90’s both days. It appears there might be just enough moisture for isolated storm coverage in the Front Range, but we will largely be dry.
High Country: Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible across the High Country each day this week. There is not a lot of available moisture until Wednesday, but daytime heating this time of year is usually enough to fire storms with any moisture at all. Check our SummitCAST page for daily updated forecasts for more than 120 mountain hiking destinations across Colorado. Here’s a look at at the lightning threat statewide on Friday.
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