The week begins right where the weekend left off with record warm temperatures on-tap for Monday. However, change will come quickly Tuesday with much colder temperatures, rain changing to snow, and even a little thunder thrown into the mix. The back-half of the week will be quiet, mild and sunny with this trend flowing right into the upcoming weekend. Read on for our complete outlook of the week ahead.
This week’s highlights include:
- A third consecutive day of record warmth is expected on Monday with temperatures near 80 degrees
- Much colder Tuesday with gusty winds, rain changing to snow, and even some thunder mixed in
- Sunny and mild weather returns Wednesday and continues into the weekend
- Don’t be fooled by the warm weather of late…The snow and cold are not through yet!
DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.
One more VERY warm day
Record warm temperatures were observed up and down the Front Range over the weekend, and more broadly, across all of Colorado and much of the western and central United States. The graphic below shows where record highs were challenged or broken on Sunday. The widespread anomalous warmth extended from southern California, through Denver and into the Great Lakes region.
Locally, most Front Range cities experienced record warmth on both Saturday and Sunday. Boulder set two new daily records, while Denver tied one and broke another.
Easter Sunday was the warmer of the two days, with many cities across the region busting records. Every city listed below eclipsed their previous best for April 4th.
- Denver – 80°F
- Boulder – 80°F
- Loveland – 81°F
- Colorado Springs – 79°F
- Pueblo – 86°F
- Scottsbluff, NE – 86°F
- Salt Lake City, UT – 79°F
- Alamosa 72°F
- Cheyenne, WY – 73°F
- Laramie, WY – 69°F
- Sidney, NE – 86°F
The cause of the warmth was a slow-moving ridge of high pressure which funneled very warm but generally dry air northward into the United States (see below). The combination of the warm airmass and abundant sunshine has led to the multi-day stretch of widespread record highs. This same atmospheric setup will persist for one more day to begin the week.
Very warm, record-setting temperatures will again be possible across the Denver Metro area on Monday before a cold front blows through early Tuesday morning.
Similar to Sunday, skies will be populated by mid and upper-level wave clouds through the day on Monday. This will help put a lid on our temperatures, preventing anything too crazy from happening with highs likely topping out between 78 and 82°F for most areas. For reference, the record highs for April 5th are 80°F in Boulder and 82°F in Denver.
Rain, snow and maybe thunder Tuesday
The Pacific storm system we highlighted earlier will make for big changes on Tuesday as it races across the northern Rockies. A preliminary cold front will arrive early Tuesday morning from the north and northeast, bringing much colder temperatures for the day with highs in the middle 50’s expected. By afternoon and evening, the main storm system will be passing directly over the Denver area, offering the threat of a rain and snow to the region.
The timing on this small but vigorous storm during near-peak solar heating will allow the chance of a few thunderstorms to develop across the Denver Metro area late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. The high-resolution HRRR model focuses the best convective energy to the west along and near the Foothills, but any storms that do form would quickly spread east and could impact any part of the Front Range.
Furthermore, while it will be warm enough for rain initially, temperatures will cool from falling precipitation and that rain may change over to snow later Tuesday evening. Accumulations would be light given the warm ground and near-surface air temperatures. Overall, we’re forecasting 0 to 1/2″ of snow for most areas at best. However, it’s possible that up to 2″ could stick in the grassy surfaces in lucky spots that see heavier snow showers or even some thundersnow. This is most likely in the Foothills and south of Denver along the Palmer Divide.
Drying out the rest of the week
By Wednesday, the tightly-wound closed low pressure will push eastward into Kansas bringing a return of quiet conditions to Colorado. Northwest flow will be present during the day Wednesday, so highs will be on the cooler side, at least compared to the record warmth of late. We are expecting temperatures to top out around 60 degrees under partly sunny skies.
Thursday will be warmer with highs around 70 degrees and lots of sun. Another quick-moving storm system will track across Wyoming and Montana Thursday into Friday (see below) which would most likely swing a dry cold front into the Front Range from the northeast. There is still a good bit of model variation with the track and timing of this storm four days out, but it appears to pass north of Colorado but with a trailing cold front arriving late in the day Thursday. This will pave the way for a cooler end to the week in our neck of the woods. We’re not expecting any precipitation with this cold front right now, but do anticipate temperatures to drop back closer to normal for Friday…around 60 degrees. It will be very sunny, though, a great way to end the week!
Finally, a quick reminder that springtime in the Front Range can be extremely variable! The storm track looks to remain relatively active in the coming week or two. However, for the time being, that track is just to our north in Montana, but this can change in the blink of an eye. Don’t be fooled by the extreme warmth of late. We could be buried by a foot or more of snow at any point during the next six weeks. April is one of our snowier months on average. Surely you haven’t forgotten the 15 inches of powder that fell on Easter Sunday just one year ago during the height of lockdown (4/12/2020)?
The median date of Boulder’s final measurable snowfall of the season is still three weeks away on April 26th. As of today, there’s about a 90% chance that Boulder will see more accumulating snow this season based off climatology.
For those of you getting eager for the growing season, don’t get too antsy. Boulder’s median date of the final frost (defined as a temperature of 32°F or colder) doesn’t come until the first week of May, but could occur much later and even after Memorial Day. However, with the ongoing La Niña pattern in the tropical Pacific, we would expect greater odds of an earlier than average last frost, as opposed to a later one.
During La Niña, we tend to see warmer overall temps in the spring, especially in May. #Boulder's last frost may be earlier than normal this year.
Earliest day of last frost: April 3 (2012)
Latest day: June 3 (1951)
Median: May 3Data from 1948-2018#COwx #Boulderwx #LastFrost pic.twitter.com/8R1mtWv0yo
— BoulderCAST Weather (@BoulderCAST) April 2, 2021
This is just some food for thought with the very warm temperatures on everyone’s minds. Spring in the Front Range is unlike anywhere else! Have a great week…
Forecast Specifics:
Monday: Partly cloudy and very warm with near-record high temperatures around 80 degrees on the Plains and in the upper 60’s in the Foothills.
Tuesday: Morning sun with increasing clouds through the day. Much cooler! Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop through the late afternoon turning cold enough for snow in the evening. Less than 1″ of accumulation is expected across the Denver Metro area. Gusty winds up to 35 MPH will be possible during the day and evening. Highs in the middle 50’s, falling into the 30’s by evening.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, dry, and cool with highs around 60 degrees on the Plains and in middle 40’s in the Foothills.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and pleasant with temperatures around 70 degrees on the Plains and in the middle 50’s in the Foothills.
Friday: Sunny and seasonal with temperatures in the lower 60’s on the Plains and middle 40’s in the Foothills.
Mountains: Snow showers will be possible in the central and northern Mountains Tuesday into Tuesday night with the passing storm system. 1 to 5″ of accumulation is expected above 11,000 feet with an inch or two in the high mountain valleys. Very spotty snow could linger into Wednesday afternoon in the northern Mountains with some moisture in the northwest flow. Thursday and beyond will be dry statewide. As will the weekend.
Help support our team of Front Range weather bloggers by joining BoulderCAST Premium. We talk Boulder and Denver weather every single day. Sign up now to get access to our daily forecast discussions each morning, complete six-day skiing and hiking forecasts powered by machine learning, first-class access to all our Colorado-centric high-resolution weather graphics, bonus storm updates and much more! Or not, we just appreciate your readership!
.
Spread the word, share the BoulderCAST forecast!
.
You must be logged in to post a comment.