A relatively quiet week lies ahead in comparison to the past few weeks. A few cool-snaps will ensue but the general trend will be for warmer weather by the end of the week. This will further help melt any leftover snow. Read on for our complete forecast for the next five days.
O
ur weather for the week ahead can be characterized in a single image, one that is shown below: the GFS mid-level 500 mb absolute vorticity pattern for the nation. The northwest flow that has enveloped much of the state was tied to a persistent trough of low pressure to our north. This trough is now situated over Minnesota. As the week progresses, it will slowly move out allowing high pressure from the Pacific to eventually take over by the end of the week. A weak cut-off low pressure system is located offshore near southern California. This system will track east-northeast over the next couple of days, but remain south of Colorado. While it will bring in clouds, there will be no threat of precipitation.
Cooler to start
After yesterday’s highs in the 50’s, the work-week will start out on the chillier side. The trough of low pressure which contains the bulk of the Arctic air in the Upper Midwest has allowed cooler air to ooze back into the Front Range today (below). Weak easterly flow will persist on Monday with highs in the middle 40’s. Expect some clouds but generally sunny skies to take over.
On Tuesday, the cold air retreats further to the east and ridging begins to take over from the west. Highs should rebound nicely back well into the 50’s to near 60 degrees under westerly flow.
Cold Front midweek
Come Wednesday, the aforementioned system near California is poised to track to our south during the day and evening. Large-scale lift and energy will remain well to our south and north (below left). Colorado will largely be wedged between the upper-level jets, with the polar jet stream to our north and the subtropical jet stream over New Mexico into the Midwest. Although the system passes to our south, the weak northerly flow will advect in some increased moisture, as well as a cold front during the day on Wednesday. This will increase clouds and lead to another transition back to the cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will likely not be as warm as Tuesday, but still only a tad below average near 50 degrees.
The latest weather models pinpoint the cold front midweek passing through sometime during the day Wednesday. Remember, with the time change, sunset is now an hour earlier, around 4:50 pm! The GFS (below) is a little faster than the regional NAM forecast model, but nevertheless both show the cold air pushing through. Behind the front, we may see a period of low clouds, fog, and spotty freezing drizzle Wednesday evening into the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. Any ice accumulations would be very minor, however.
Thursday’s highs will remain cool as well, somewhere between the middle 40’s to lower 50’s.
Warmer to end the week
Nearly all of the guidance indicates Friday will hold the nicest weather of the week. High pressure will finally take over (below left), with above average temperatures expected across much of the Inter-Mountain West. Highs in the lower 60’s may be possible. In fact, snow levels will rise to ~ 12,000 feet (below right) over the state, another marker that the cold air has retreated back north and east of our area. It appears, though, that the cooler air once again makes a return late in weekend. Have you noticed a trend?
Finally, we must mention that there is virtually no threat of precipitation all week. A very slight chance of freezing drizzle and snow flurries may exist Wednesday night behind the cold front, but other than that, the area will remain bone-dry through the next 5 to 7 days (below). Note the large amounts of precipitation over Oklahoma and northern Texas. This is tied to the system passing to our south Wednesday and Thursday which is fueled with moisture from the sub-tropical jet stream.
We leave you with a GOES-East visible satellite loop from last Thursday (Oct 31) following the double-shot of winter across the area. About 90% of our state was blanketed in snow following the two storms last week…everywhere except the lower elevations of the Western Slope near Grand Junction. This animation shows the snow quickly beginning to melt and also a nice wave cloud forming over Denver!
Click to enlarge
Forecast Specifics:
Monday: Some morning clouds then afternoon sunshine. Highs chilly in the middle 40’s on the Plains and middle 30’s in the Foothills.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 50’s on the Plains and middle 40’s for the Foothills.
Wednesday: Sunny skies giving way to mostly cloudy conditions in the afternoon/evening. Behind a cold front, low clouds, fog, and spotty freezing drizzle may develop by evening and overnight. Early day highs in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s on the Plains. Highs in the Foothills in the low 40’s.
Thursday: Morning low clouds and lingering freezing drizzle followed by partly sunny skies. Cooler with temperatures in the upper 40’s on the Plains and middle 30’s in the Foothills.
Friday: Mostly sunny and much warmer. Highs near 60 on the Plains and upper 40’s in the Foothills.
High Country: Quiet weather will be the story for the High Country this week. To the disappointment of all the skiers, no threat of snow or storminess is expected. Check our PowderCAST page for always-updated weather forecasts for all of Colorado ski resorts, though this week you won’t find much interesting weather or any fresh snow.
DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.
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