Wednesday’s Bike to Work Day forecast includes a chance of rain

The last Wednesday in June has arrived, the day when thousands of hard-working citizens take to the bike paths for their morning and evening commutes. Yes, it’s Bike to Work Day 2019 on Wednesday! Five out of the last twelve Bike to Work Days have seen measurable precipitation in Boulder. How does tomorrow’s forecast look for the Metro area? Read on to find out if the bikers will be getting wet this year….

Here is a short and sweet look at several factors impacting Wednesday’s Bike to Work Day forecast….

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN: Looking big picture, currently there is a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest and a developing ridge across the southern Great Plains. As a result, a nice fetch of southwesterly flow is leading into Colorado. This will help bring in warmer temperatures for Wednesday and in fact the rest of the week.

GFS 500 mb height anomaly forecast for Wednesday afternoon

MOISTURE: Statewide the available moisture Wednesday afternoon will be rather limited with column water vapor values near 0.5″ in Denver. The incoming southwest flow will contain some moisture in the mid-levels, but overall the airmass is fairly dry coming our way from the Desert Southwest. Remember, monsoon season is still a few weeks away (at least).

GFS precipitable water forecast for Wednesday afternoon

Wednesday afternoon’s forecast sounding shows the dry lower atmosphere with elevated cloud bases near 16,000 feet. Despite this lack of moisture, we do expect a few high-base thunderstorms to develop again Wednesday afternoon, similar to what transpired on Tuesday.

Overall forecast: The weather in general for Bike to Work Day will be fairly decent. While we can’t truly say you won’t run into rain out there, chances are fairly slim across the Denver Metro area considering all the factors above. Daytime heating will provide just enough energy to develop a few high-based thunderstorms. Coverage will be isolated during the afternoon and evening, with the most likely time-frame for storms being 2PM to 8PM. Rainfall should be light in the showers that do form…most of it will be evaporating before it reaches the ground. Brief outflow wind gusts emanating from the storms will be possible though. High temperatures will be pleasant and right around normal in the mid to upper 80’s.

A closer look….

7:00 AM: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 60’s.

9:00 AM: Partly to mostly cloudy and mild with temperatures in lower 70’s.

Noon: Mostly cloudy and warm with temperatures in the lower 80’s.

4:00 PM: Partly cloudy and warm with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures in the middle to upper 80’s.

6:00 PM: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures in the lower 80’s.

Have a safe and enjoyable ride everyone!