The week ahead will feature two quick-moving troughs that will impact weather here in Colorado. The first will arrive Tuesday night, with a second one soon to follow just 24 hours later Wednesday night. As a result, our weather will be in a general state of transition much of the week. Read on for details.
Before these troughs move in, Monday will be a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the 50’s. This “warm-up” will be the result of weak ridging, sunny skies, light downslope winds, and warm air advection.
GFS 700mb temperature anomaly forecast map for Monday
Midweek: Rapidly changing weather
The middle of the work-week will see the arrival and quick-passage of two Pacific troughs. Due to the speedy nature of these systems, impacts will be minimal for the Metro area and even the snowfall in the Mountains will be rather light. The quick movement of these two troughs will also lead to rapidly changing weather for our region, at least in principle. We may not notice the effects too much at the surface.
Tuesday MORNING will begin mild and pleasant overall with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs should have no trouble climbing into the 50’s again. The 500 mb setup showing the approaching first trough early Tuesday is below.
GFS 500 mb vorticity map for Tuesday morning.
As the first trough passes, though, a weak front will move through bringing in slightly cooler air to Colorado Tuesday EVENING. The 500 mb map below shows that a second, stronger trough is already coming ashore into the Pacific northwest.
GFS 500 mb vorticity map for Tuesday evening.
Similar to Tuesday, Wednesday MORNING will begin on the mild side as west-southwest flow ahead of Trough #2 pushes into Colorado. This second trough will have more energy and a stronger cold front with it. This front is currently slated to arrive into northern Colorado sometime Wednesday afternoon.
GFS 500 mb vorticity map for Wednesday morning.
Despite this front, temperatures should be able to reach into the lower 50’s for a third straight day. Our max temperature will most likely occur around lunchtime. When the front passes, expect temperatures to drop quickly into the 30’s with some gusty northwest winds possible.
Wednesday will also offer our only chance of precipitation for the week. Isolated rain and snow showers will accompany the frontal passage across the Metro area and gusty northwest winds. The strong downslope will help to suppress the lift from the trough as it moves across Denver. Thus, any precipitation will be light and isolated with little to no impacts for the lower elevations. The Mountains can expect several inches of snow Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. 2 to 5″ of snow seems reasonable.
GFS snowfall forecast for Wednesday trough
Windy Thursday?
As the second trough departs, strong downward forcing on its backside will bring down winds from overhead jet stream. Models are not in great agreement if these strong winds will impact the Front Range at this time. They may end up being further east in Colorado and western Kansas. Nonetheless, Thursday will be cooler with highs only in the 40’s with sunshine.
GFS 250 mb wind forecast for Thursday morning. The highlighted area will be favored for gusty winds.
Tranquil Friday
The week is set to end on a nearly perfect note with an amplified ridge passing across the Rockies. Look for sunshine with temperatures quickly warming back into the mid to upper 50’s with light winds.
GFS 500 mb map for Friday showing a ridge moving across Colorado
Looking at some of the longer-range models, the overall weather pattern doesn’t seem to change much heading through the weekend and into next week. The story remains similar with quick-moving Pacific troughs providing little in the way of precipitation or impacts to Colorado. As you can see in the 500 mb map above, yet another Pacific trough is coming ashore. This will move across Colorado on Saturday, but at this time, appears fairly weak and shouldn’t do much for us. This, of course, may change…
Have a great week!
Forecast Specifics:
Monday: Sunny and mild with slightly increasing clouds by late afternoon. Highs in the middle 50’s on the Plains and lower 40’s in the Foothills.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and mild in the morning, then mostly sunny. Highs in the low to middle 50’s on the Plains and in the lower 40’s in the Foothills.
Wednesday: Morning sunshine, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated afternoon and evening rain/snow showers. Highs topping out in the lower 50’s in the morning or early afternoon, followed by tumbling temperatures into the 30’s as a cold front passes along with gusty northwest winds.
Thursday: Sunny, cooler, and possibly windy with gusts exceeding 30 mph on the Plains. Highs in the middle 40’s on the Plains and middle 30’s in the Foothills.
Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the middle 50’s on the Plains and middle 40’s in the Foothills.
High Country: Light and isolated snow showers are expected in the Mountains Tuesday evening and night with the passage of the first trough. Only 1″ or less of accumulation in most cases. More widespread snow is expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the second trough. At this time, it looks like only 2 to 5″ of snowfall is possible. Gusty winds will be present in the High Country Tuesday through Thursday. Check PowderCAST for forecasts for all the Colorado ski resorts.
DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast was created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.
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