The heat continues this week with lower to middle 90’s through Wednesday under warm southwest flow. This pattern will also favor the threat of wildfires across Colorado. Our chance of storms does not really materialize until the latter part of the week, accompanied by a cold front followed by northwest flow. Read on more to find out the full week ahead details.
This week’s highlights include:
- It’s all about the heat through Wednesday with highs low to middle 90’s
- Be careful: Critical fire weather conditions will exist through Wednesday across the higher terrain
- A cool-down is coming Thursday and Friday, along with increased chances of storms
DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.
It’s all about the heat through Wednesday
Before we talk about the heat we will experience through Wednesday, let’s take a look at the nation’s weather to start our Monday. It is shown below in the mid-level 500 mb pattern. Over the southeastern United States, a cut-off area of low pressure will continually rotate counter-clockwise over the Carolinas through Friday, resulting in wet and chilly weather over that area. The ridge of high pressure in the Midwest will make its way into the Great Lakes over the next few days. Finally, a trough of low pressure off Washington state will eventually inch into our neck of the woods late Wednesday, eventually bringing down a cold front for the latter part of the week. But before that happens, it’s all about the heat from the southwest flow.
The airmass has changed little from Sunday to start the work week. In fact, highs today will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday in the low to middle 90’s, as temperatures 5,000 feet up warm a degree or so (bottom left). Tomorrow, the airmass further warms (bottom right) and it will likely be our hottest day of the week with highs well into the middle 90’s over the Denver Metro area. This will be about 15°F above average for mid-June. There will also be some breezy southwest winds on Tuesday, which will warrant a potential Red Flag Warning for wildfires…more on that later.
For today and tomorrow, the threat of storms will be nearly non-existent. Southwest winds over the region continue to usher in air devoid of moisture to the state of Colorado. In addition, stable and warm conditions aloft are keeping most of the ingredients necessary for storms off to our east and southeast in New Mexico and Kansas (below). Most of the state will be bone dry under largely sunny skies.
Threat of wildfires Tuesday
As discussed in the beginning of this post, in addition to the heat on Tuesday, there will also be heightened fire danger, especially across central and southern Colorado where drought is occurring. The trough over the Pacific Northwest inches closer on Tuesday and will be centered around northwest Idaho (below left). At the same time, its large extent will bring a jet streak extending from central and northern Nevada through Colorado and Wyoming (below left). This will further enhance and strengthen the southwest winds aloft over the higher terrain tomorrow (below right), where winds are forecasted to exceed 30 mph. Winds on the Plains may gust to 25 or 30 mph.
A combination of breezy southwest winds, warm temperatures, and very low humidities across Colorado tomorrow will lead to Red Flag conditions. Fire Weather watches from the National Weather Service were already in place over the region. Red Flag Warnings are issued for these scenarios. The current drought monitor has moderate to extreme drought over central and southern Colorado. If you are going hiking or camping, remember: ONLY you can prevent forest fires!
The dry and hot conditions continue through Wednesday, keeping the unstable air for storm development over the central Great Plains and Midwest (below). This is also the reason why we should remain dry through Wednesday, with temperatures Wednesday once again in the low to middle 90’s.
A cool-down closer to normal Thursday/Friday…storm chances elevate
After well above average temperatures through Wednesday, the aforementioned trough is expected to eject from Idaho into the upper Midwest by the latter part of the week into Thursday and Friday (below). As it does so, it will allow a cold front (below right) to drop into northeast Colorado from the northeast. The airmass is looking a good 6 to 10°C cooler, a nice change with more typical highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s possible to end the week. The closer proximity of the trough, allowing for ripples of energy for lift, as well as surface upslope and elevated moisture, will increase our chance of scattered storms. This will translate to 10-20% Thursday and 20-30% on Friday. Expect clouds to be more in the forecast on Friday as well.
As for the upcoming weekend, a weak northwesterly flow pattern looks to setup (below left). This should continue the trend from what we’ll experience late this week, with more seasonal temperatures in the 80’s and increased chances of scattered storms thanks to elevated moisture and mid-level energy (below right).
Have a great week!
Forecast Specifics:
Monday: A mix of high clouds and sun. Hot with highs in the low to middle 90’s on the Plains and upper 70’s to 80 in the Foothills.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, breezy, and hot with highs in the middle 90’s on the Plains and low 80’s in the Foothills. Southwest winds 15-25 mph.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies and hot with light breezy conditions. Highs in the low to middle 90’s for the Plains and near 80 in the Foothills.
Thursday: Cooler and more seasonal with highs in the upper 70’s on the Plains and upper 60’s in the Foothills. A 10-20% chance of storms.
Friday: A 20-30% chance of storms with increasing clouds and temperatures in the lower 80’s on the Plains and upper 60’s in the Foothills.
High Country: Critical fire weather conditions will exist through Wednesday with warm temperatures, very low humidity, and gusty southwest winds. Chances for storms are slim until after Wednesday. Cooler conditions and an increased threat of storms will occur for the Thursday-Saturday timeframe, though we still don’t expect anything widespread. Check SummitCAST for daily updated forecasts for more than 120 mountain hiking destinations across Colorado.
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