A few wobbly overnight snow bands dropped a light, fluffy coating of powder across the Front Range—right on target with our forecast. We break down where the bands hit, why the snow ratios were so sky‑high, and what this tiny event means for our growing seasonal deficit. We also look ahead to the warm, dry pattern set to carry us into the New Year.
Category: Verification (Page 1 of 51)
These posts take a look back at recent weather events, like snow storms or severe weather outbreaks, and evaluate how the forecast played out. We evaluate how well the models predicted what actually occurred, and offer insight into what can be learned and applied moving forward.
After a stretch of December warmth so extreme it rewrote some record books across the Front Range, we’re finally staring down a pattern shift—though not quite the snowy one we initially hoped for. A pair of cold fronts will bring a sharp temperature drop, a few chances for rain and snow, and at least the feeling of winter back to Boulder and Denver. The details have changed quite a bit in the last 24 to 48 hours, but we’ll walk you through what’s still on the table, what’s no longer likely, and where a few surprises could still sneak in Saturday night.
Updated (7AM Friday 12/19): Updated based on latest guidance adjusting timings and intensity of wind/fire impacts, and also made a stronger case for the extreme winds (and fire danger) to potentially stay mostly in the Foothills or very close to there. Lowered wind/fire risk in Boulder proper. This is still a very dangerous situation.
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Boulder, the far western suburbs of Denver, and the Foothills are bracing for yet another powerful mountain wave windstorm Friday, with gusts likely topping 75–100 MPH and, this time, extreme fire danger will be layered on top. Forecast models show the strongest winds during the morning into the afternoon, coinciding with critically dry air and record‑challenging warmth. Power shutoffs, downed trees, and blowing dust are all on the table, but the bigger story is the fire risk—conditions are primed for rapid spread if any ignition occurs. Fortunately it now appears that most of the intense winds will stay largely in the Foothills, but there is some uncertainty how far downhill and east they will reach. Read on for the full breakdown of timing, impacts, and what you need to know to stay safe. We also briefly review the damaging wind event that just occurred on Wednesday.
Winter finally showed up in style this week along the Front Range. After a sluggish start to the season, our first true snowstorm delivered nearly 18 hours of steady flakes, painting Boulder, Denver, and much of Colorado in white. But this wasn’t just a simple upslope event—there were some fascinating atmospheric twists that kept the snow machine running longer than expected. We review the storm setup and snowfall totals which greatly favored the western side of the Metro area including Boulder.
A few snowflakes fell across the area Sunday evening with some jet-forced snow bands around. These were largely south of Denver leaving just a trace of snow for most of us. The Mountains made out better with several inches of orographic snow piling up under moist northwesterly flow. We briefly review both the snow totals from this single storm and the seasonal ones.
Boulder’s long snow drought has finally ended—just shy of a record streak. An Arctic front swept through early Saturday, dropping temps fast and delivering the season’s first flakes. Boulder picked up 0.3″, the latest first snowfall ever recorded in the city and it wasn’t even close. Curious how our forecast stacked up and what’s next? Spoiler: Another round of snow is already knocking on the door for Sunday.
Sunday’s record-breaking November heat will give way to a dramatic cooldown on Monday, with temperatures plunging 20 to 30 degrees and wave clouds rolling in over the Front Range. The week ahead stays dry and mostly mild, but a few weak cold fronts will stir up some wind and day-to-day temperature swings. And while the forecast looks quiet for now, ensemble models are starting to hint at a colder, potentially snowier shift next week.
After a stretch of crisp, dry days to end the week, our weather is gearing up for a big warm-up this weekend, with near-record highs favored by Sunday. This developing warm and unfortunately dry pattern looks likely to stick around well into November. With each passing day, the odds grow that Boulder might challenge its record for the latest first snowfall.
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