Sunday’s record-breaking November heat will give way to a dramatic cooldown on Monday, with temperatures plunging 20 to 30 degrees and wave clouds rolling in over the Front Range. The week ahead stays dry and mostly mild, but a few weak cold fronts will stir up some wind and day-to-day temperature swings. And while the forecast looks quiet for now, ensemble models are starting to hint at a colder, potentially snowier shift next week.
Category: Verification (Page 1 of 51)
These posts take a look back at recent weather events, like snow storms or severe weather outbreaks, and evaluate how the forecast played out. We evaluate how well the models predicted what actually occurred, and offer insight into what can be learned and applied moving forward.
After a stretch of crisp, dry days to end the week, our weather is gearing up for a big warm-up this weekend, with near-record highs favored by Sunday. This developing warm and unfortunately dry pattern looks likely to stick around well into November. With each passing day, the odds grow that Boulder might challenge its record for the latest first snowfall.
September 2025 brought a classic Colorado blend to Boulder and the Front Range: near-normal temps, wetter-than-average skies, and a lively mix of sunshine and storms. A standout precipitation event around the 23rd delivered soaking rain in the lowlands and the first real coating of snow to the Mountains. The month eased us gently into autumn, with crisp mornings, comfortable afternoons, and brilliant foliage lighting up the higher terrain. And yes—who could forget that dramatic wave of Canadian wildfire smoke that swept through, reminding us how connected we are to the broader arid landscape of western North America. Here’s a quick and colorful graphical recap of our weather during September and how it relates to climatology.
This week’s weather in the Front Range will be a bit of a rollercoaster. After Sunday night’s soaking rain and snow, Monday kicks off with fog, drizzle, and stubborn clouds before a midweek warm-up brings back the sunshine. But don’t get too cozy: frost season is knocking on the door, and snow signals are starting to flicker in the long-range models. Read on for the full breakdown, including what to expect today, what time rain showers will return later in the day Monday, and when late-season gardeners should start watching for frost and snowflakes.
P.S. Don’t forget to submit your entry to our 2025 First Snow Contest which closes Tuesday night at midnight!
August 2025 was on track to be our third scorcher in a row — hot, dry, and smoky — until a late-month shift brought in a welcome stretch of cooler, wetter weather. That pattern change helped balance things out across the Front Range, with most areas landing close to average for rainfall and just slightly warmer than normal overall. Still, it wasn’t all relief: the month packed in plenty of wildfire smoke and a few record-breaking heat days that served to remind us that summer wasn’t done yet. Here’s a quick and colorful graphical recap of our weather during August and how it relates to climatology.
NOTE: This monthly recap was delayed due to missing data in the August 2025 climate record for Boulder which has since been partially filled with best-guess approximations.
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Thursday marks the final chapter of our late-summer heatwave, with record-challenging highs expected across the Front Range — but big changes are on the horizon. A cold front arrives tonight, ushering in cooler temps, a return of thunderstorms, and a wetter, more active pattern that could stick around well into next week. From sizzling heat to damaging hail, monsoonal moisture, and a long stretch of below-normal highs, today’s forecast update has a little bit of everything.
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