Temperatures will be on the uptick over the next couple days, after which a downward trend takes over toward the latter part of the week. There are also hints of a late week rain and snow event. We’ll detail all of this and more in our week ahead.
This week’s highlights include:
- Fast moving trough will spawn scattered showers/thundershowers late in the day Monday
- Highs into the 60’s for Tuesday…our warmest day of the week
- Watching a mid to late week cold front to drop temperatures
- A chance at rain/snow on Friday?
- A chilly end to the week with highs falling back below average
DISCLAIMER: This weekly outlook forecast is created Monday morning and covers the entire upcoming week. Accuracy will decrease as the week progresses as this post is NOT updated. To receive daily updated forecasts from our team, subscribe to BoulderCAST Premium.
Generally dry and warmer to start
The week more or less continues where we left off yesterday with highs near the lower 50’s. The trough pattern that was with us most of the weekend is finally making its exit…after tonight that is! The final ejection of the trough will send one last low pressure that will track just to our south this evening. Expect a sunny start, followed by increasing clouds and a chance of late day showers. The Mountains will be the big receiver of the system, with another round of snow showers for the High Country today and tonight, slowly tapering off by tomorrow morning.
Thanks to some surface instability (below left) and the mid-level system (above), isolated to scattered showers or thundershowers will pop-up from about 2 PM until 8 PM. Most of us will stay dry, but expect pockets of showers over the Denver Metro area. We put the chance of showers today at 20%.
Tomorrow, a nice warm up, albeit brief, is in store. A very strong subtropical jet stream sets up late Tuesday through Thursday (below), with west-southwest flow being the dominant pattern. Thanks to the jet stream overhead during this period, we’ll likely see wave clouds from time to time as the moist flow interacts with the terrain.
We do think Tuesday will be our warmest day of the week, with middle 60’s. The westerly flow aloft will create a noticeable downslope surface pattern across the Front Range (below). Outside of those wave clouds, sunshine should also help rise the mercury on that thermometer!
A less-certain forecast to end the week
From about Wednesday onward, there is more uncertainty as with most weekly outlooks. A trough will be taking shape Wednesday off to our west-northwest but not pass through the region until the start of the upcoming weekend. The GFS model currently shows the trough anchored over California into Thursday (below left), moving into northeastern New Mexico by midnight Friday night (below right). The GFS is not the only forecast guidance we are looking at…the European model shows a much different scenario, with the trough not becoming a closed circulation. This has led to a quite uncertain track and pattern to this storm. This is the reason for the uncertain outlook Wednesday onward, as well the potential for rain/snow on Friday.
The GFS ensemble (below) is also hinting at this uncertainty. While a decent number of ensemble members indicate the chance of rain or snow, there does not appear to be a clear consensus on precipitation type or amount.
Given the uncertainty in the storm track, temperatures are somewhat difficult to forecast starting on Wednesday. As the trough out west slowly edges closer and southward, so will the cold air from Montana and Wyoming. Some guidance would place the front right on our doorstep as early as Wednesday (below left), while other guidance would not bring the front through until Thursday or Friday (below right). Over general outlook calls for a gradual cool-down Wednesday through Friday with highs dropping back into the 50’s and maybe the 40’s come Friday. Clouds will also be on the increase to end the week.
Wherever the late-week storm system tracks, it will have plenty of moisture to work with. The subtropical jet stream pumps in a deep fetch of above average moisture over the CONUS, extending from the Pacific Ocean into the Midwest and Northeast (below).
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Forecast Specifics:
Monday: Mostly sunny early giving way to increasing clouds with isolated showers or thundershowers into early evening. Highs in the lower 50’s on the Plains and lower 40’s in the Foothills.
Tuesday: Morning sunshine to give way to afternoon wave clouds. Highs in the low to middle 60’s on the Plains and near 50 in the Foothills.
Wednesday: A mix of wave clouds and sunshine with highs in the upper 50’s to near 60 for the Plains and upper 40’s in the Foothills.
Thursday: Cooler and increasing clouds with a slight chance of late day rain showers. Highs in the middle 50’s on the Plains and middle 40’s in the Foothills.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow showers into Saturday. Highs near 50 on the Plains and near 40 in the Foothills.
High Country: While you can’t ski this week, the Mountains to continue their fair share of fresh powder this week. A general 3-6″ is likely across much of the higher terrain tonight. Lingering snow showers will persist for the early part of Tuesday but drier weather takes over as the afternoon wears on. After a dry Wednesday, more snow is in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Check our PowderCAST page for always-updated weather forecasts for all of the Colorado ski resorts.
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