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The week ahead: February 22-26, 2016

After a mild weekend, we return to winter starting this evening as an upper-level shortwave dives southeast bringing snowfall to Boulder, the adjacent Foothills, and Denver. After the snow moves out early Tuesday, temperatures moderate with sunshine and low 50’s to round out the week. How much snow is on tap? Read on to find out!

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The week ahead: February 15-19, 2016

After a breezy and mild Sunday, this week’s weather is all about the wind and warmth. The upper-level jet will be overhead these next few days, producing west-northwest winds as high as 70 mph at times, especially in the Foothills. A ridge then rebuilds by midweek, sending our highs soaring into the low 70’s. Nothing to speak of in terms of precipitation, though the mountains will see some snow. Time to get those shorts out!

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Why was this week’s snowstorm so easy to predict?

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Two weekends in a row, forecast models get to pat themselves on the back for accurately predicting major snowstorms more than seven days in advance. While this is a great showcase for the advancement of modern numerical weather prediction, it shouldn’t be considered a common occurrence. Model uncertainty, especially that far in advance, is still very large. After all, weather is the poster child for chaos theory!

As this week’s storm slid across the North Pacific Ocean on it’s way to Colorado, we were hesitant to inject any definitive snowfall amounts into our forecasts. Remarkably, looking back, if we had to issue a forecast a week ahead of time, it wouldn’t have looked all that different from our snowfall map the day before. We explain why this storm was a relatively easy forecast, and issue a few words of caution as we head through the second half of our winter season.

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Final Forecast: Storm system right on track beginning this evening

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Storm system making landfall over southern California this afternoon

The strong winter storm is still right on track to hit the Denver Metro area and much of Colorado. As we discussed in our previous post, this storm looks impressive and will lead to several inches of snow on the ground by Tuesday morning. In this final update, we provide our snowfall forecast from tonight into Tuesday for Denver, Boulder and the adjacent Foothills.

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