Today’s forecast covers the heat wave in the near-term and how the first named Tropical Storm of the year, Alvin, will impact our weather this weekend.
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Even warmer than yesterday
We may be starting to sound like a broken record, but indeed, the focus again today (and tomorrow) will be continued southwest flow for our region in response to an expanding ridge of high pressure in New Mexico. With this, we’ll continue to see warm air advection and sunshine heat the airmass to above normal levels for late-June.
GFS 500mb height anomaly forecast for today
How hot will it be you ask? In a scenario where large-scale conditions aren’t changing much (e.g. right now), taking a look at 700 mb temperature jumps is a good way to gauge how much surface temperatures will increase as well. Comparing 700 mb readings yesterday to today across the Denver Metro area (below), we see a warming of around 2°C in the models. This same warming will apply to our surface temperatures and thus we expect highs about 3 to 4°F (~2°C) higher today than yesterday.
GFS forecast 700 mb temperatures and winds for yesterday afternoon (left) and this afternoon (right). Notice the warming
As you can see below, most cities were in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s on Wednesday. Denver did indeed have its first 90-degree day of the year, hitting 90 degrees on the head at DIA. The aforementioned warming extrapolation will put just about everyone in the lower to middle 90’s across the Plains today and very near to 80 degrees in Foothills communities such as Nederland and Jamestown.
There’s no chance of rain either. Skies will begin and remain party cloudy through the day thanks to morning wave clouds and late day cumulus development rolling off the higher terrain.
Heat wave ahead, but a rainy Sunday?
The 90’s will stick around for us through Saturday. In fact, we’ll likely push into the middle 90’s, with maybe even a few upper 90’s over the next two days with little change in the weather expected.
The light at the end of the tunnel comes Sunday when deeper moisture arrives. In the moisture anomaly loop below, can you tell what is happening late in the weekend towards the end of the animation?
GFS precipitation water anomaly forecast animation covering today through next Monday morning.
Times up! That is indeed the first named tropical system of the year in the eastern Pacific riding up along the Mexican coastline. Watch closely as the moisture from Tropical Storm Alvin gets swept northeastward by the high pressure in New Mexico and flows towards Colorado on Sunday. At the same time, a cold front could be dropping south out of the northern Great Plains which is something worth watching for late in the weekend for the potential for heavy rainfall. At the very least, expect a much better chance of storms around these parts Sunday with precipitable water values peaking above 1.1″ in Denver.
Tropical Storm Alvin is the first named storm in the eastern Pacific this year
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