Category: Verification (Page 55 of 61)

These posts take a look back at recent weather events, like snow storms or severe weather outbreaks, and evaluate how the forecast played out. We evaluate how well the models predicted what actually occurred, and offer insight into what can be learned and applied moving forward.

El Niño update and the outlook for the second half of winter

February 14, 2016 / Ben Castellani

On paper, the 2015-16 super El Niño became everything that it was forecast to be, with water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean warming to near-record levels. However, the location and extent of the warming, and the global impacts, have been anything but typical. We discuss how well our last El Niño forecast verified and the outlook for the remainder of our winter season. What can Boulder expect in the way of precipitation, snowfall, and temperatures heading forward? Read on to find out.

Mid-winter Colorado snowfall briefing

February 6, 2016 / Ben Castellani

Are you beginning to anticipate those hot, sunny, and at times, stormy summer afternoons? You’re definitely not alone. Winter in Colorado can be long, with snow possible (and dare I say, common) nine months out of the year, even on the Plains. Following our biggest single-storm snow event in nearly three years, we check in on our snow totals and mountain snowpack thus far for the 2015-16 winter season.

Why was this week’s snowstorm so easy to predict?

February 5, 2016 / Ben Castellani

Two weekends in a row, forecast models get to pat themselves on the back for accurately predicting major snowstorms more than seven days in advance. While this is a great showcase for the advancement of modern numerical weather prediction, it shouldn’t be considered a common occurrence. Model uncertainty, especially that far in advance, is still very large. After all, weather is the poster child for chaos theory!

As this week’s storm slid across the North Pacific Ocean on it’s way to Colorado, we were hesitant to inject any definitive snowfall amounts into our forecasts. Remarkably, looking back, if we had to issue a forecast a week ahead of time, it wouldn’t have looked all that different from our snowfall map the day before. We explain why this storm was a relatively easy forecast, and issue a few words of caution as we head through the second half of our winter season.

Storm Recap: Boulder sees heavy snow, Phil doesn’t see shadow

February 2, 2016 / Ben Castellani

This week’s snowstorm has definitely lived up to the hype. Despite a few wrenches thrown in to the mix, our forecast turned out quite well, thanks in part to last night’s ferocious snow band. We recap the storm, explain why the heavy snow formed last night, and check in on our forecast. Read on for all the details.

The week ahead: February 1-5, 2016

February 1, 2016 / Andy

All eyes are on a strong winter storm that is affecting Colorado, the Midwest, and the Great Lakes. Below shows the National Weather Service watches and warnings for the United States, demonstrating the large influence this storm will have today through mid-week. Areas of Colorado will see over a foot of snow, with 1 to 2 feet across Nebraska and Iowa with blizzard conditions …

The week ahead: January 25-29, 2016

January 25, 2016 / Ben Castellani

Following a mild weekend, the week ahead will be dominated by mostly sunny conditions across the lower elevations, with a significant warm-up likely to end the week. Read on for our full forecast!

The week ahead: January 18-22, 2016

January 18, 2016 / Ben Castellani

After a chilly and exciting weekend (Go Broncos!), the week ahead will entertain the continuation of our recent weather pattern. Weather systems will be frequent, quick-moving, and weak, with the Mountains reeling in more snow. Seasonal and mostly dry conditions will dominate the Plains. Continue for full details.