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As advertised, our best chance of storms all weekend will be today and this evening. A deep trough is present near Idaho (below), with a trough axis positioned north-south into California. The forecast models are in much better agreement today. The disturbance or shortwave that was over Mexico yesterday is now moving northward through New Mexico and Colorado today (below …

Moisture creeps up today and even more so tomorrow. The monsoon flow is building back into the area, with precipitable water approaching slightly above 1" of water vapor.  The trough out west and the ridge to our southeast will favor an increased chance of storms this afternoon and evening. However, as we saw yesterday, the NAM appears to be another …

Warmer end to our week after yesterday's highs only reach the lower 80's. Below shows a comparison in the mid-level pattern between the GFS (left) and NAM (right) forecast models. Both show a large trough of low pressure off the coast of California, and a ridge of high pressure near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Where the two models differ …

Cooler & stormier A nice display of thunderstorms developed after sunset last night as the shortwave we discussed yesterday finally arrived to help bust the cap across the Metro area. Portions of both the Boulder and Denver areas saw brief but intense rainfall, lots of lightning, and even some hail was reported by BoulderCAST's own Dr. Kren in Gunbarrel. For …

A litter of shortwaves As promised, high pressure has pushed further south and east and is located across southeastern New Mexico this morning. Loosing some influence from this ridge, the central Rockies have become littered with mid-level shortwaves. As many as four mini-disturbances will be helping to enhance shower and storm activity later today, one of which is forecast to …

Drier Tuesday The "Four Corners" high pressure remains in-control for one more day. Models are consistent in showing that this high will weaken and slowly migrate eastward over the next couple of days. This transition will bring better chance of storms the rest of the week as southerly flow helps to advect in better monsoonal moisture. For today, though, slightly drier air …

High pressure has moved ever so slightly to the east and southeast today (below). That, in turn, has allowed more moisture to creep back into the state and for the Plains this afternoon and evening. Total column moisture rises to around 1 inch. The location of the high also allows monsoon flow to build back into the area, both from …