Temperatures this week will be hover right around normal for early May. We are watching a few cold fronts, especially one late in the work week, that will trend us cooler for the upcoming weekend. The last piece of the puzzle, precipitation, will be rather scarce this week.
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This week’s highlights include:
- A series of northerly cool fronts and southeasterly flow keep temperatures within a few degrees of normal most days
- The warmest day looks to be Thursday in the middle 70’s as a brief ridge passes us by
- Turning much cooler by Friday with a slight chance of rain
May the 4th be with you!
Today is May 4th, and you know what that means?! May the Fourth be with you for all those Star Wars fans out there. A gorgeous day is expected with temperatures near average with lots of sunshine, albeit breezy at times.
An area of low pressure is situated in South Dakota today/tonight. It has brought through a cold front across Colorado earlier in the day. Behind it, northwest winds have taken over. That has also helped to dry out the atmosphere considerably from where it was on Saturday. Temperatures as a result will be a tad cooler than yesterday in the middle to upper 60’s. Thanks to the close proximity of the low pressure to our neck of the woods, a tighter height/pressure gradient under the northwest flow will create gusty winds this afternoon and early evening up to 35 mph at times. The downslope winds should make for a crystal clear day today under lots of sunshine.
A series of cool fronts in next few days
Thanks to last night’s cool front and another weak one tomorrow night, temperatures overall will hover near average through the week. Today’s cool front will push further south overnight tonight into tomorrow morning (below), keeping our highs tomorrow more-or-less the same. Highs in the upper 60’s will be a good bet. The week will remain rather pleasant in the 60’s and lower 70’s through Wednesday. The flow will be out of the southeast – a weak upslope flow to help keep those toastier temperatures at bay.
By Tuesday night, another dip in the flow will allow a weak cool front to slide through again. Though there are some differences in the strength of this second one, with the NAM model (below left) on the warmer side and the GFS (below right) on the cooler side. Temperatures Wednesday will likely rise a tad into the lower 70’s with again lots of sunshine trending to late day high clouds.
Ridge builds Wednesday/Thursday
By late Wednesday a nice ridge at 500 mb (below) will spread east and allow for above average weather come Thursday. You’ll notice in the below image that below average heights (cooler weather) push off to our east into the Midwest, whereas the higher height pattern engulfs much of the Inter-Mountain west. However, note a small area of below average heights in the Pacific Northwest…this will be a player for cooler weather on Friday. As a result of the ridge on Thursday, we feel mid to upper 70’s will take over, likely our warmest day of the week.
Northwest flow for upcoming weekend
The ridge appears relatively short-lived as the jet stream takes another nose-dive starting as early as early Friday. A much cooler airmass pushes in to end the work week in the latest forecast guidance (below). Temperatures in the lowest layer are near 8°C, which would lower highs near the lower 60’s, a tad below average. Depending on how far west the cool air gets, we could see a few rain drops and more clouds during the day on Friday.
The dip in the jet stream is more evident in the below image on the left, with a well depicted jet streak from Montana into Nebraska, and northwest winds aloft over the state of Colorado. This is for the start of the weekend on Saturday. As you might expect, this northwest flow favors cooler than average temperatures (below right), extending along and east of Colorado into the Midwest. While this is several days out, there is decent agreement that we’ll at least see the cooler than average weather into Sunday. Certainly this is not anything extreme, but highs 5-10 degrees below average will be the story. Fortunately, the weather should remain relatively dry.
There are some long-term hints, though that the beginning of next week could have a slight chance of rain/snow depending on the jet stream position (below) and how far west the cool air penetrates. Keep in mind that while we are in May, 8 out of the last 10 Mays have had measurable snow in Boulder. You might want to hold off on that garden for another week or two!
Enjoy the first full week of May and continue to stay safe and healthy!
Forecast Specifics:
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and near normal. Highs in the middle 60’s on the Plains and lower 50’s in the Foothills. West-northwest winds 15-20 and gusting to 35 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny and cool with highs in the upper 60’s for the Plains and middle 50’s in the Foothills.
Wednesday: Sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. Highs near the lower 70’s on the Plains and upper 50’s in the Foothills.
Thursday: Partly cloudy skies and warmer with low to middle 70’s on the Plains and lower 60’s in the Foothills.
Friday: Cooler under a mix of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures will top out near 60 degrees on the Plains and upper 40’s in the Foothills.
The Weekend: A cool northwest flow looks to take over, with highs in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s. There may even be a chance of rain/snow early next week?
High Country: The higher terrain starts out milder and breezy on this Monday with a few rain/snow showers. Rather quiet and tranquil weather resides much of the week thereafter. Another breezy day will exist Thursday with a warm front passing through. With almost no impactful storm systems in the last two weeks and sunny/warm conditions, snowpack has started to dwindle statewide. Check SummitCAST for daily updated forecasts for more than 120 mountain hiking destinations across Colorado.
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