Tag: winter (Page 9 of 14)

The week ahead: February 22-26, 2016

After a mild weekend, we return to winter starting this evening as an upper-level shortwave dives southeast bringing snowfall to Boulder, the adjacent Foothills, and Denver. After the snow moves out early Tuesday, temperatures moderate with sunshine and low 50’s to round out the week. How much snow is on tap? Read on to find out!

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El Niño update and the outlook for the second half of winter

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On paper, the 2015-16 super El Niño became everything that it was forecast to be, with water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean warming to near-record levels. However, the location and extent of the warming, and the global impacts, have been anything but typical. We discuss how well our last El Niño forecast verified and the outlook for the remainder of our winter season. What can Boulder expect in the way of precipitation, snowfall, and temperatures heading forward? Read on to find out.

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Mid-winter Colorado snowfall briefing

Are you beginning to anticipate those hot, sunny, and at times, stormy summer afternoons? You’re definitely not alone. Winter in Colorado can be long, with snow possible (and dare I say, common) nine months out of the year, even on the Plains. Following our biggest single-storm snow event in nearly three years, we check in on our snow totals and mountain snowpack thus far for the 2015-16 winter season.

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Why was this week’s snowstorm so easy to predict?

Boulder_Flatirons_snow

Two weekends in a row, forecast models get to pat themselves on the back for accurately predicting major snowstorms more than seven days in advance. While this is a great showcase for the advancement of modern numerical weather prediction, it shouldn’t be considered a common occurrence. Model uncertainty, especially that far in advance, is still very large. After all, weather is the poster child for chaos theory!

As this week’s storm slid across the North Pacific Ocean on it’s way to Colorado, we were hesitant to inject any definitive snowfall amounts into our forecasts. Remarkably, looking back, if we had to issue a forecast a week ahead of time, it wouldn’t have looked all that different from our snowfall map the day before. We explain why this storm was a relatively easy forecast, and issue a few words of caution as we head through the second half of our winter season.

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