Today’s forecast covers the cooler weather and potentially the first measurable precipitation of 2020 later today. An abbreviated weekly outlook will be posted tomorrow.

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A weak and fast moving trough of low pressure will track through the state this afternoon and tonight. There is definitely a lack of a core circulation, but one exists to our south in New Mexico and another up north in Wyoming, with a trough axis connecting the two (below). The system takes more-or-less an unfavorable movement for precipitation chances on the Plains of eastern Colorado. It will track into New Mexico and the panhandle of Texas as we head into tonight.

Flow across the Plains as a result will mainly be downslope, with north-northwest winds the primary direction (below). This will mean a relatively dry day for the Denver Metro area. However, as the trough axis pulls through this afternoon, a weak convergence line will help focus lift for scattered rain/snow showers before the evening commute.

Overall, mostly cloudy skies will be the norm today outside of any isolated rain/snow showers. BoulderCAST’s model-derived snow levels come this evening stay more or less above 6000 feet, meaning any precipitation that falls will likely be mostly light rain. Though a mix of snow cannot be ruled out given the colder airmass headed in tonight. We think the best chance of precipitation will be this afternoon to early evening, but primarily east of Interstate 25 and south of Denver. Certainly no accumulation is expected, thus continuing our snowless January. By tonight, downslope shifts in and dries us out. Expect highs in the middle 40’s.

This system today will primarily be a snow maker for the mountains to our west (below). Persistent light to moderate snow will be located across west and northwest Colorado, making for favorable ski conditions later today and tomorrow.

GFS total snowfall forecast through Tuesday morning

Andy

Born and raised in St. Louis, Andrew obtained a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Colorado in 2015. From 2015 to 2020, he worked remotely in Boulder as an atmospheric scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Andy is now a full-time meteorologist.

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